Traders assign a 97.5% probability to no U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026 due to sustained diplomatic engagement and bilateral security cooperation between the Trump administration and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Recent developments include repeated rejections of U.S. troop deployments, expanded extraditions of cartel figures, and measurable declines in fentanyl flows alongside U.S. border enforcement operations such as the Joint Task Force–Southern Border. Deep economic integration under USMCA, congressional resistance to unilateral military action without authorization, and the absence of any formal declaration or large-scale troop movements reinforce this consensus. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential escalation in cartel violence, shifts in diplomatic posture, or unforeseen security incidents before year-end that could prompt limited strikes rather than a full invasion.