The expanded 48-team World Cup 2026 group stage, which opened June 11 across 12 groups of four, creates broad uncertainty over which side will post the strongest FIFA ranking among those eliminated. Top-ranked contenders such as Argentina, France, Spain, and England sit at low implied probabilities because their depth, recent form, and favorable draws make early exits unlikely, while teams ranked roughly 25–50 (Japan, South Korea, Ecuador, Austria, Croatia, Canada) cluster near 49–50% as plausible candidates depending on results in mixed groups featuring hosts and mid-tier opponents. Mid-table sides from Africa, CONCACAF, and Asia share similar 50% pricing due to comparable squad quality, travel demands, and the expanded format that still requires strong goal difference or points for third-place advancement. Pre-tournament friendlies and the June FIFA rankings have reinforced these tight margins without decisive shifts yet.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCoppa del Mondo: nazione con la classifica più alta eliminata (fase a gironi)
Switzerland (19) 99%
Croatia (11) 98%
USA (17) 98%
Japan (18) 98%
Argentina (1)
50%
Spain (2)
54%
France (3)
10%
England (4)
55%
Portugal (5)
55%
Brazil (6)
54%
Morocco (7)
55%
Netherlands (8)
55%
Belgium (9)
55%
Germany (10)
55%
Croatia (11)
98%
Colombia (13)
55%
Mexico (14)
55%
Senegal (15)
55%
Uruguay (16)
55%
USA (17)
98%
Japan (18)
98%
Switzerland (19)
99%
IR Iran (20)
98%
Türkiye (22)
98%
Ecuador (23)
98%
Austria (24)
98%
Korea Republic (25)
98%
Australia (27)
98%
Algeria (28)
98%
Egypt (29)
98%
Canada (30)
98%
Switzerland (19) 99%
Croatia (11) 98%
USA (17) 98%
Japan (18) 98%
Argentina (1)
50%
Spain (2)
54%
France (3)
10%
England (4)
55%
Portugal (5)
55%
Brazil (6)
54%
Morocco (7)
55%
Netherlands (8)
55%
Belgium (9)
55%
Germany (10)
55%
Croatia (11)
98%
Colombia (13)
55%
Mexico (14)
55%
Senegal (15)
55%
Uruguay (16)
55%
USA (17)
98%
Japan (18)
98%
Switzerland (19)
99%
IR Iran (20)
98%
Türkiye (22)
98%
Ecuador (23)
98%
Austria (24)
98%
Korea Republic (25)
98%
Australia (27)
98%
Algeria (28)
98%
Egypt (29)
98%
Canada (30)
98%
The FIFA World Ranking in effect at the time of this market's creation will be used.
“Eliminated in the group phase” means the nation does not advance to the knockout stage (i.e., does not finish first or second in its group and is not among the eight best third-placed teams that advance).
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the group stage results cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jun 12, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The FIFA World Ranking in effect at the time of this market's creation will be used.
“Eliminated in the group phase” means the nation does not advance to the knockout stage (i.e., does not finish first or second in its group and is not among the eight best third-placed teams that advance).
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the group stage results cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The expanded 48-team World Cup 2026 group stage, which opened June 11 across 12 groups of four, creates broad uncertainty over which side will post the strongest FIFA ranking among those eliminated. Top-ranked contenders such as Argentina, France, Spain, and England sit at low implied probabilities because their depth, recent form, and favorable draws make early exits unlikely, while teams ranked roughly 25–50 (Japan, South Korea, Ecuador, Austria, Croatia, Canada) cluster near 49–50% as plausible candidates depending on results in mixed groups featuring hosts and mid-tier opponents. Mid-table sides from Africa, CONCACAF, and Asia share similar 50% pricing due to comparable squad quality, travel demands, and the expanded format that still requires strong goal difference or points for third-place advancement. Pre-tournament friendlies and the June FIFA rankings have reinforced these tight margins without decisive shifts yet.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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