Lionel Messi's established role as Argentina's primary penalty taker, backed by his strong recent form in tune-up matches, underpins the 63.5% implied probability for Yes. The 38-year-old converted a spot kick within a minute of entering as a substitute in the final pre-tournament friendly against Iceland on June 9, silencing concerns over a hamstring strain sustained in late May. As defending champions entering a 48-team World Cup with a favorable group schedule starting June 16, Argentina's projected path to the knockout stages provides multiple high-stakes opportunities where Messi typically assumes set-piece duties. His career conversion rate and leadership in decisive moments further support trader consensus around this outcome, though fixture progression and any late fitness developments remain key variables.