Ongoing El Niño development, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of conditions emerging in May–July 2026, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, positions May 2026 as likely the second-hottest on record. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have risen rapidly since early 2026, producing positive subsurface anomalies that models project will intensify global temperatures without yet reaching the peak influence seen in prior strong events. April 2026 ranked only fourth-warmest globally at 1.12 °C above average, while early-May Northern Hemisphere readings hit 17.53 °C, the highest for the date, yet still trail the record May set during the 2023–2024 El Niño peak. This leaves roughly a 29% market-implied chance that May 2026 surpasses that benchmark and a 60% probability it finishes second, consistent with ensemble forecasts showing elevated but not unprecedented anomalies for the month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 60%
1st hottest 29%
3rd hottest 7.3%
4th or lower 1.9%
$99,212 Vol.
$99,212 Vol.
2026/06/10
1st hottest
29%
2nd hottest
60%
3rd hottest
7%
4th or lower
2%
2nd hottest 60%
1st hottest 29%
3rd hottest 7.3%
4th or lower 1.9%
$99,212 Vol.
$99,212 Vol.
2026/06/10
1st hottest
$10,674 Vol.
29%
2nd hottest
$1,910 Vol.
60%
3rd hottest
$38,881 Vol.
7%
4th or lower
$47,747 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing El Niño development, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of conditions emerging in May–July 2026, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, positions May 2026 as likely the second-hottest on record. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have risen rapidly since early 2026, producing positive subsurface anomalies that models project will intensify global temperatures without yet reaching the peak influence seen in prior strong events. April 2026 ranked only fourth-warmest globally at 1.12 °C above average, while early-May Northern Hemisphere readings hit 17.53 °C, the highest for the date, yet still trail the record May set during the 2023–2024 El Niño peak. This leaves roughly a 29% market-implied chance that May 2026 surpasses that benchmark and a 60% probability it finishes second, consistent with ensemble forecasts showing elevated but not unprecedented anomalies for the month.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
音量
$99,212終了日
2026/06/10マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing El Niño development, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of conditions emerging in May–July 2026, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, positions May 2026 as likely the second-hottest on record. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have risen rapidly since early 2026, producing positive subsurface anomalies that models project will intensify global temperatures without yet reaching the peak influence seen in prior strong events. April 2026 ranked only fourth-warmest globally at 1.12 °C above average, while early-May Northern Hemisphere readings hit 17.53 °C, the highest for the date, yet still trail the record May set during the 2023–2024 El Niño peak. This leaves roughly a 29% market-implied chance that May 2026 surpasses that benchmark and a 60% probability it finishes second, consistent with ensemble forecasts showing elevated but not unprecedented anomalies for the month.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$99,212終了日
2026/06/10マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing El Niño development, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of conditions emerging in May–July 2026, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, positions May 2026 as likely the second-hottest on record. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have risen rapidly since early 2026, producing positive subsurface anomalies that models project will intensify global temperatures without yet reaching the peak influence seen in prior strong events. April 2026 ranked only fourth-warmest globally at 1.12 °C above average, while early-May Northern Hemisphere readings hit 17.53 °C, the highest for the date, yet still trail the record May set during the 2023–2024 El Niño peak. This leaves roughly a 29% market-implied chance that May 2026 surpasses that benchmark and a 60% probability it finishes second, consistent with ensemble forecasts showing elevated but not unprecedented anomalies for the month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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