Current climate projections position 2026 as most likely the second-warmest year on record, with global surface temperature anomalies tracking around 1.47°C above the pre-industrial baseline according to analyses from Carbon Brief and NASA data. This stems from sustained anthropogenic warming combined with lingering ocean heat from the strong 2024–2025 El Niño event, even as early 2026 months like January through April rank between fourth- and fifth-warmest in their respective records. Trader consensus aligns with these trends, assigning high probability to a second-place finish behind 2024’s 1.55°C peak while allowing for a modest chance of surpassing it if summer anomalies strengthen further. Official monthly updates from NOAA will refine these odds through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2 56%
1 34%
4 2.8%
6位以下 2.3%
$2,819,678 Vol.
$2,819,678 Vol.
2026/12/31
1
34%
2
56%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6位以下
2%
2 56%
1 34%
4 2.8%
6位以下 2.3%
$2,819,678 Vol.
$2,819,678 Vol.
2026/12/31
1
$453,726 Vol.
34%
2
$325,807 Vol.
56%
3
$427,594 Vol.
2%
4
$416,574 Vol.
3%
5
$731,047 Vol.
1%
6位以下
$464,929 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Current climate projections position 2026 as most likely the second-warmest year on record, with global surface temperature anomalies tracking around 1.47°C above the pre-industrial baseline according to analyses from Carbon Brief and NASA data. This stems from sustained anthropogenic warming combined with lingering ocean heat from the strong 2024–2025 El Niño event, even as early 2026 months like January through April rank between fourth- and fifth-warmest in their respective records. Trader consensus aligns with these trends, assigning high probability to a second-place finish behind 2024’s 1.55°C peak while allowing for a modest chance of surpassing it if summer anomalies strengthen further. Official monthly updates from NOAA will refine these odds through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
音量
$2,819,678終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Current climate projections position 2026 as most likely the second-warmest year on record, with global surface temperature anomalies tracking around 1.47°C above the pre-industrial baseline according to analyses from Carbon Brief and NASA data. This stems from sustained anthropogenic warming combined with lingering ocean heat from the strong 2024–2025 El Niño event, even as early 2026 months like January through April rank between fourth- and fifth-warmest in their respective records. Trader consensus aligns with these trends, assigning high probability to a second-place finish behind 2024’s 1.55°C peak while allowing for a modest chance of surpassing it if summer anomalies strengthen further. Official monthly updates from NOAA will refine these odds through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,819,678終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current climate projections position 2026 as most likely the second-warmest year on record, with global surface temperature anomalies tracking around 1.47°C above the pre-industrial baseline according to analyses from Carbon Brief and NASA data. This stems from sustained anthropogenic warming combined with lingering ocean heat from the strong 2024–2025 El Niño event, even as early 2026 months like January through April rank between fourth- and fifth-warmest in their respective records. Trader consensus aligns with these trends, assigning high probability to a second-place finish behind 2024’s 1.55°C peak while allowing for a modest chance of surpassing it if summer anomalies strengthen further. Official monthly updates from NOAA will refine these odds through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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