Global seismic records from the USGS indicate magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events occur roughly once every 25–50 years on average, with the most recent confirmed case being the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake. The brief window remaining through December 2026, combined with ongoing monitoring showing only M7–8.8 activity such as the 2025 Kamchatka sequence, underpins traders’ strong 93% implied probability of “No.” No subduction zone currently exhibits the widespread strain accumulation or foreshock patterns that historically precede full-margin ruptures. An unexpected M9+ failure in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Kuril-Kamchatka trench remains possible but would require rapid, unobserved stress changes inconsistent with present USGS data and model consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$273,597 Vol.
$273,597 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$273,597 Vol.
$273,597 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic records from the USGS indicate magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events occur roughly once every 25–50 years on average, with the most recent confirmed case being the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake. The brief window remaining through December 2026, combined with ongoing monitoring showing only M7–8.8 activity such as the 2025 Kamchatka sequence, underpins traders’ strong 93% implied probability of “No.” No subduction zone currently exhibits the widespread strain accumulation or foreshock patterns that historically precede full-margin ruptures. An unexpected M9+ failure in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Kuril-Kamchatka trench remains possible but would require rapid, unobserved stress changes inconsistent with present USGS data and model consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
音量
$273,597終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic records from the USGS indicate magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events occur roughly once every 25–50 years on average, with the most recent confirmed case being the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake. The brief window remaining through December 2026, combined with ongoing monitoring showing only M7–8.8 activity such as the 2025 Kamchatka sequence, underpins traders’ strong 93% implied probability of “No.” No subduction zone currently exhibits the widespread strain accumulation or foreshock patterns that historically precede full-margin ruptures. An unexpected M9+ failure in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Kuril-Kamchatka trench remains possible but would require rapid, unobserved stress changes inconsistent with present USGS data and model consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$273,597終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Global seismic records from the USGS indicate magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events occur roughly once every 25–50 years on average, with the most recent confirmed case being the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake. The brief window remaining through December 2026, combined with ongoing monitoring showing only M7–8.8 activity such as the 2025 Kamchatka sequence, underpins traders’ strong 93% implied probability of “No.” No subduction zone currently exhibits the widespread strain accumulation or foreshock patterns that historically precede full-margin ruptures. An unexpected M9+ failure in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Kuril-Kamchatka trench remains possible but would require rapid, unobserved stress changes inconsistent with present USGS data and model consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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