Recent El Niño intensification in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies climbing above +1.5°C, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for August 2026 global surface temperature anomalies clustered near 1.34–1.45°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows July 2026 tying prior record warmth at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, with ocean heat content sustaining high values into August amid developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Long-term anthropogenic forcing underpins the elevated baseline, while short-term atmospheric variability and forecast model spread around peak El Niño timing create the narrow probability margins across bins. Updated seasonal outlooks and early August observational data will refine resolution thresholds in coming weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年8月気温上昇（º C ） （より高いストライキ）
2026年8月気温上昇（º C ） （より高いストライキ）
1.42–1.45ºC 40%
>1.45ºC 40%
1.30–1.33ºC 39%
1.38–1.41ºC 39%
新規
新規
2026/09/01
<1.30ºC
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
39%
1.34–1.37ºC
38%
1.38–1.41ºC
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
40%
>1.45ºC
40%
1.42–1.45ºC 40%
>1.45ºC 40%
1.30–1.33ºC 39%
1.38–1.41ºC 39%
新規
新規
2026/09/01
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
1.34–1.37ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1.38–1.41ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
40%
>1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño intensification in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies climbing above +1.5°C, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for August 2026 global surface temperature anomalies clustered near 1.34–1.45°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows July 2026 tying prior record warmth at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, with ocean heat content sustaining high values into August amid developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Long-term anthropogenic forcing underpins the elevated baseline, while short-term atmospheric variability and forecast model spread around peak El Niño timing create the narrow probability margins across bins. Updated seasonal outlooks and early August observational data will refine resolution thresholds in coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño intensification in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies climbing above +1.5°C, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for August 2026 global surface temperature anomalies clustered near 1.34–1.45°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows July 2026 tying prior record warmth at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, with ocean heat content sustaining high values into August amid developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Long-term anthropogenic forcing underpins the elevated baseline, while short-term atmospheric variability and forecast model spread around peak El Niño timing create the narrow probability margins across bins. Updated seasonal outlooks and early August observational data will refine resolution thresholds in coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent El Niño intensification in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies climbing above +1.5°C, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for August 2026 global surface temperature anomalies clustered near 1.34–1.45°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows July 2026 tying prior record warmth at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, with ocean heat content sustaining high values into August amid developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Long-term anthropogenic forcing underpins the elevated baseline, while short-term atmospheric variability and forecast model spread around peak El Niño timing create the narrow probability margins across bins. Updated seasonal outlooks and early August observational data will refine resolution thresholds in coming weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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