Trader consensus around a 5-6 launch total for 2026 (62.5% implied probability) reflects the measured pace of Starship flight tests to date, with only Flight 12 in May and Flight 13 in July achieving space this year amid ongoing V3 vehicle maturation. Key constraints include FAA licensing timelines, environmental reviews, and iterative fixes to engines, heat shields, and booster catch systems that have historically limited cadence to roughly one flight every 4–8 weeks. The recent successful July 24 orbital insertion and Starlink V3 deployment on Flight 13 has reinforced trader views of steady but not explosive progress, while Flight 14's September target and subsequent attempts face similar approval and production bottlenecks that make exceeding six flights unlikely before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5～6 62%
5未満 32%
7～8 8.2%
9〜10 2.6%
$492,899 Vol.
$492,899 Vol.
2026/12/31
5未満
32%
5～6
62%
7～8
8%
9〜10
3%
11〜12
2%
13～14
<1%
15〜16
<1%
>16
1%
5～6 62%
5未満 32%
7～8 8.2%
9〜10 2.6%
$492,899 Vol.
$492,899 Vol.
2026/12/31
5未満
$99,128 Vol.
32%
5～6
$113,791 Vol.
62%
7～8
$158,458 Vol.
8%
9〜10
$61,476 Vol.
3%
11〜12
$8,371 Vol.
2%
13～14
$9,146 Vol.
<1%
15〜16
$30,046 Vol.
<1%
>16
$12,483 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around a 5-6 launch total for 2026 (62.5% implied probability) reflects the measured pace of Starship flight tests to date, with only Flight 12 in May and Flight 13 in July achieving space this year amid ongoing V3 vehicle maturation. Key constraints include FAA licensing timelines, environmental reviews, and iterative fixes to engines, heat shields, and booster catch systems that have historically limited cadence to roughly one flight every 4–8 weeks. The recent successful July 24 orbital insertion and Starlink V3 deployment on Flight 13 has reinforced trader views of steady but not explosive progress, while Flight 14's September target and subsequent attempts face similar approval and production bottlenecks that make exceeding six flights unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
音量
$492,899終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around a 5-6 launch total for 2026 (62.5% implied probability) reflects the measured pace of Starship flight tests to date, with only Flight 12 in May and Flight 13 in July achieving space this year amid ongoing V3 vehicle maturation. Key constraints include FAA licensing timelines, environmental reviews, and iterative fixes to engines, heat shields, and booster catch systems that have historically limited cadence to roughly one flight every 4–8 weeks. The recent successful July 24 orbital insertion and Starlink V3 deployment on Flight 13 has reinforced trader views of steady but not explosive progress, while Flight 14's September target and subsequent attempts face similar approval and production bottlenecks that make exceeding six flights unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$492,899終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus around a 5-6 launch total for 2026 (62.5% implied probability) reflects the measured pace of Starship flight tests to date, with only Flight 12 in May and Flight 13 in July achieving space this year amid ongoing V3 vehicle maturation. Key constraints include FAA licensing timelines, environmental reviews, and iterative fixes to engines, heat shields, and booster catch systems that have historically limited cadence to roughly one flight every 4–8 weeks. The recent successful July 24 orbital insertion and Starlink V3 deployment on Flight 13 has reinforced trader views of steady but not explosive progress, while Flight 14's September target and subsequent attempts face similar approval and production bottlenecks that make exceeding six flights unlikely before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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