Recent regulatory grounding following the May 2026 V3 debut flight and persistent technical challenges with engine performance during ascent maneuvers have kept Starship’s annual cadence low, with just one integrated launch completed in the first half of the year. The FAA-mandated mishap investigation into Flight 12 delays Flight 13, currently targeted for July, while prior 2025 flights demonstrated incremental reusability gains but highlighted recurring issues with heat shield integrity and booster recovery. Trader consensus around four to six total 2026 flights reflects these hurdles against SpaceX’s stated goal of rapid iteration, tempered by historical timelines for returning to flight after anomalies. Key upcoming catalysts include the investigation’s completion, updated FAA launch licenses, and any successful static-fire or cryogenic testing milestones that could accelerate the schedule.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<5 39%
5-6 37%
7-8 12.0%
>16 2.9%
$478,762 Vol.
$478,762 Vol.
2026/12/31
<5
39%
5-6
37%
7-8
12%
9-10
2%
11-12
1%
13-14
1%
15-16
1%
>16
3%
<5 39%
5-6 37%
7-8 12.0%
>16 2.9%
$478,762 Vol.
$478,762 Vol.
2026/12/31
<5
$95,248 Vol.
39%
5-6
$111,568 Vol.
37%
7-8
$155,463 Vol.
12%
9-10
$59,608 Vol.
2%
11-12
$7,076 Vol.
1%
13-14
$8,342 Vol.
1%
15-16
$29,439 Vol.
1%
>16
$12,018 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent regulatory grounding following the May 2026 V3 debut flight and persistent technical challenges with engine performance during ascent maneuvers have kept Starship’s annual cadence low, with just one integrated launch completed in the first half of the year. The FAA-mandated mishap investigation into Flight 12 delays Flight 13, currently targeted for July, while prior 2025 flights demonstrated incremental reusability gains but highlighted recurring issues with heat shield integrity and booster recovery. Trader consensus around four to six total 2026 flights reflects these hurdles against SpaceX’s stated goal of rapid iteration, tempered by historical timelines for returning to flight after anomalies. Key upcoming catalysts include the investigation’s completion, updated FAA launch licenses, and any successful static-fire or cryogenic testing milestones that could accelerate the schedule.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
音量
$478,762終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent regulatory grounding following the May 2026 V3 debut flight and persistent technical challenges with engine performance during ascent maneuvers have kept Starship’s annual cadence low, with just one integrated launch completed in the first half of the year. The FAA-mandated mishap investigation into Flight 12 delays Flight 13, currently targeted for July, while prior 2025 flights demonstrated incremental reusability gains but highlighted recurring issues with heat shield integrity and booster recovery. Trader consensus around four to six total 2026 flights reflects these hurdles against SpaceX’s stated goal of rapid iteration, tempered by historical timelines for returning to flight after anomalies. Key upcoming catalysts include the investigation’s completion, updated FAA launch licenses, and any successful static-fire or cryogenic testing milestones that could accelerate the schedule.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$478,762終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent regulatory grounding following the May 2026 V3 debut flight and persistent technical challenges with engine performance during ascent maneuvers have kept Starship’s annual cadence low, with just one integrated launch completed in the first half of the year. The FAA-mandated mishap investigation into Flight 12 delays Flight 13, currently targeted for July, while prior 2025 flights demonstrated incremental reusability gains but highlighted recurring issues with heat shield integrity and booster recovery. Trader consensus around four to six total 2026 flights reflects these hurdles against SpaceX’s stated goal of rapid iteration, tempered by historical timelines for returning to flight after anomalies. Key upcoming catalysts include the investigation’s completion, updated FAA launch licenses, and any successful static-fire or cryogenic testing milestones that could accelerate the schedule.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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