Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability against a new pandemic in 2026, driven by the absence of any novel pathogen achieving sustained human-to-human transmission at a global scale, per WHO and CDC surveillance data through mid-May. Ongoing threats like avian influenza A(H5N1)—with just 13 sporadic human cases including one death in Q1—and the multi-country mpox outbreak (over 181,000 cumulative cases since 2022, mostly clade IIb) remain regionally contained, lacking the exponential spread or high case-fatality ratios defining a pandemic under WHO criteria. Post-2025 Pandemic Agreement, enhanced global monitoring has detected no qualifying public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). Realistic challenges include H5N1 mutation enabling efficient airborne spread or an unforeseen zoonotic spillover, with key upcoming WHO epidemiological updates and respiratory season data potentially shifting sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$403,191 Vol.
$403,191 Vol.
はい
$403,191 Vol.
$403,191 Vol.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
マーケット開始日： Dec 1, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability against a new pandemic in 2026, driven by the absence of any novel pathogen achieving sustained human-to-human transmission at a global scale, per WHO and CDC surveillance data through mid-May. Ongoing threats like avian influenza A(H5N1)—with just 13 sporadic human cases including one death in Q1—and the multi-country mpox outbreak (over 181,000 cumulative cases since 2022, mostly clade IIb) remain regionally contained, lacking the exponential spread or high case-fatality ratios defining a pandemic under WHO criteria. Post-2025 Pandemic Agreement, enhanced global monitoring has detected no qualifying public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). Realistic challenges include H5N1 mutation enabling efficient airborne spread or an unforeseen zoonotic spillover, with key upcoming WHO epidemiological updates and respiratory season data potentially shifting sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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