**SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated reliable Super Heavy booster catches with the Mechazilla tower’s mechanical “chopsticks” arms since the first success on Flight 5 in October 2024, establishing the hardware and guidance systems as proven for the heavier, slower-returning booster.** The far more demanding upper-stage (Ship) catch—requiring precise orbital reentry, high-speed deceleration, attitude control, and a hover-level landing burn—remains unattempted. Flight 13 on July 24, 2026 delivered the key enabling data: a near-perfect Ship splashdown with accurate engine-out performance and soft landing on two Raptors, prompting Elon Musk to state that SpaceX would attempt the first tower catch on Flight 14 unless post-flight data reveals issues. Flight 14, the first V3 orbital mission with Starlink V3 payload deployment, is targeted for late August or early September 2026 pending FAA regulatory approval. Musk reiterated the plan during SpaceX’s August 2026 earnings call, noting the potential for a double-catch sequence (booster first, then Ship after orbital operations). Recent preparations at Starbase, including Pad 2 tower work and stacking tests, support rapid iteration. Traders are weighing the narrow window for approval and execution against the technical complexity of Ship recovery, which exceeds booster parameters in speed and thermal loads. A successful Flight 14 catch would mark a major step toward full reusability, while any delay or anomaly could push the milestone to Flights 15 or later.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/08/31
2026年8月31日
50%
2026年9月30日
51%
2026年10月31日
61%
$2 Vol.
2026年8月31日
$1 Vol.
50%
2026年9月30日
$0 Vol.
51%
2026年10月31日
$1 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.**SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated reliable Super Heavy booster catches with the Mechazilla tower’s mechanical “chopsticks” arms since the first success on Flight 5 in October 2024, establishing the hardware and guidance systems as proven for the heavier, slower-returning booster.** The far more demanding upper-stage (Ship) catch—requiring precise orbital reentry, high-speed deceleration, attitude control, and a hover-level landing burn—remains unattempted. Flight 13 on July 24, 2026 delivered the key enabling data: a near-perfect Ship splashdown with accurate engine-out performance and soft landing on two Raptors, prompting Elon Musk to state that SpaceX would attempt the first tower catch on Flight 14 unless post-flight data reveals issues.
Flight 14, the first V3 orbital mission with Starlink V3 payload deployment, is targeted for late August or early September 2026 pending FAA regulatory approval. Musk reiterated the plan during SpaceX’s August 2026 earnings call, noting the potential for a double-catch sequence (booster first, then Ship after orbital operations). Recent preparations at Starbase, including Pad 2 tower work and stacking tests, support rapid iteration. Traders are weighing the narrow window for approval and execution against the technical complexity of Ship recovery, which exceeds booster parameters in speed and thermal loads. A successful Flight 14 catch would mark a major step toward full reusability, while any delay or anomaly could push the milestone to Flights 15 or later.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
マーケット開始日： Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
音量
$2終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.**SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated reliable Super Heavy booster catches with the Mechazilla tower’s mechanical “chopsticks” arms since the first success on Flight 5 in October 2024, establishing the hardware and guidance systems as proven for the heavier, slower-returning booster.** The far more demanding upper-stage (Ship) catch—requiring precise orbital reentry, high-speed deceleration, attitude control, and a hover-level landing burn—remains unattempted. Flight 13 on July 24, 2026 delivered the key enabling data: a near-perfect Ship splashdown with accurate engine-out performance and soft landing on two Raptors, prompting Elon Musk to state that SpaceX would attempt the first tower catch on Flight 14 unless post-flight data reveals issues.
Flight 14, the first V3 orbital mission with Starlink V3 payload deployment, is targeted for late August or early September 2026 pending FAA regulatory approval. Musk reiterated the plan during SpaceX’s August 2026 earnings call, noting the potential for a double-catch sequence (booster first, then Ship after orbital operations). Recent preparations at Starbase, including Pad 2 tower work and stacking tests, support rapid iteration. Traders are weighing the narrow window for approval and execution against the technical complexity of Ship recovery, which exceeds booster parameters in speed and thermal loads. A successful Flight 14 catch would mark a major step toward full reusability, while any delay or anomaly could push the milestone to Flights 15 or later.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
音量
$2終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated reliable Super Heavy booster catches with the Mechazilla tower’s mechanical “chopsticks” arms since the first success on Flight 5 in October 2024, establishing the hardware and guidance systems as proven for the heavier, slower-returning booster.** The far more demanding upper-stage (Ship) catch—requiring precise orbital reentry, high-speed deceleration, attitude control, and a hover-level landing burn—remains unattempted. Flight 13 on July 24, 2026 delivered the key enabling data: a near-perfect Ship splashdown with accurate engine-out performance and soft landing on two Raptors, prompting Elon Musk to state that SpaceX would attempt the first tower catch on Flight 14 unless post-flight data reveals issues. Flight 14, the first V3 orbital mission with Starlink V3 payload deployment, is targeted for late August or early September 2026 pending FAA regulatory approval. Musk reiterated the plan during SpaceX’s August 2026 earnings call, noting the potential for a double-catch sequence (booster first, then Ship after orbital operations). Recent preparations at Starbase, including Pad 2 tower work and stacking tests, support rapid iteration. Traders are weighing the narrow window for approval and execution against the technical complexity of Ship recovery, which exceeds booster parameters in speed and thermal loads. A successful Flight 14 catch would mark a major step toward full reusability, while any delay or anomaly could push the milestone to Flights 15 or later.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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