Google's ongoing delays with Gemini 3.5 Pro, originally targeted for June after an I/O 2026 preview and repeatedly pushed back amid internal testing shortfalls on agentic coding and long-horizon tasks, represent the main driver behind current market-implied odds favoring an October release. The company has instead accelerated iterative Flash variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash in early September, while confirming partner testing of the flagship large language model without a firm timeline. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases, combined with DeepMind's shift toward Gemini 4 pre-training, adds uncertainty around when the next Pro model will reach general availability via the Gemini app, API, or Google Antigravity platform. Traders should monitor Alphabet earnings or sudden partner feedback updates for potential catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,282,013 Vol.
2026/09/15
September 15
3%
September 30
13%
October 31
76%
10月15日
27%
$1,282,013 Vol.
September 15
$12,320 Vol.
3%
September 30
$84,318 Vol.
13%
October 31
$20,527 Vol.
76%
10月15日
$8,764 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's ongoing delays with Gemini 3.5 Pro, originally targeted for June after an I/O 2026 preview and repeatedly pushed back amid internal testing shortfalls on agentic coding and long-horizon tasks, represent the main driver behind current market-implied odds favoring an October release. The company has instead accelerated iterative Flash variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash in early September, while confirming partner testing of the flagship large language model without a firm timeline. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases, combined with DeepMind's shift toward Gemini 4 pre-training, adds uncertainty around when the next Pro model will reach general availability via the Gemini app, API, or Google Antigravity platform. Traders should monitor Alphabet earnings or sudden partner feedback updates for potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 9:16 AM ET
音量
$1,282,013終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 9:16 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's ongoing delays with Gemini 3.5 Pro, originally targeted for June after an I/O 2026 preview and repeatedly pushed back amid internal testing shortfalls on agentic coding and long-horizon tasks, represent the main driver behind current market-implied odds favoring an October release. The company has instead accelerated iterative Flash variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash in early September, while confirming partner testing of the flagship large language model without a firm timeline. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases, combined with DeepMind's shift toward Gemini 4 pre-training, adds uncertainty around when the next Pro model will reach general availability via the Gemini app, API, or Google Antigravity platform. Traders should monitor Alphabet earnings or sudden partner feedback updates for potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,282,013終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 9:16 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Google's ongoing delays with Gemini 3.5 Pro, originally targeted for June after an I/O 2026 preview and repeatedly pushed back amid internal testing shortfalls on agentic coding and long-horizon tasks, represent the main driver behind current market-implied odds favoring an October release. The company has instead accelerated iterative Flash variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash in early September, while confirming partner testing of the flagship large language model without a firm timeline. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases, combined with DeepMind's shift toward Gemini 4 pre-training, adds uncertainty around when the next Pro model will reach general availability via the Gemini app, API, or Google Antigravity platform. Traders should monitor Alphabet earnings or sudden partner feedback updates for potential catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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