OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 $122 billion funding round, paired with $24–25 billion annualized revenue run rate, underpins trader consensus for a closing market cap above $1.25 trillion. Enterprise revenue now exceeds 40% of total and continues scaling, even as overall growth has flattened near $2 billion monthly. The confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and pivot toward a 2027 listing—rather than late 2026—introduce modest timing uncertainty yet leave the probability of no IPO by end-2027 below 10%. These factors, combined with OpenAI’s ambition for a $1 trillion-plus debut and strong AI-sector multiples, drive the 37.6% implied probability on the 1.5T+ outcome while embedding realistic scenarios for lower ranges if losses widen or macro conditions tighten.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1.5兆ドル以上 37.6%
1.25兆〜1.5兆 25%
1兆～1.25兆 20.3%
2027年12月31日までに上場しない 10%
$90,303 Vol.
$90,303 Vol.
2027/12/31
5,000億未満
1%
5,000億〜7,500億ドル
3%
7,500億～1兆
8%
1兆～1.25兆
20%
1.25兆〜1.5兆
25%
1.5兆ドル以上
38%
2027年12月31日までに上場しない
10%
1.5兆ドル以上 37.6%
1.25兆〜1.5兆 25%
1兆～1.25兆 20.3%
2027年12月31日までに上場しない 10%
$90,303 Vol.
$90,303 Vol.
2027/12/31
5,000億未満
$6,284 Vol.
1%
5,000億〜7,500億ドル
$8,357 Vol.
3%
7,500億～1兆
$9,333 Vol.
8%
1兆～1.25兆
$14,102 Vol.
20%
1.25兆〜1.5兆
$8,690 Vol.
25%
1.5兆ドル以上
$24,054 Vol.
38%
2027年12月31日までに上場しない
$19,483 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 $122 billion funding round, paired with $24–25 billion annualized revenue run rate, underpins trader consensus for a closing market cap above $1.25 trillion. Enterprise revenue now exceeds 40% of total and continues scaling, even as overall growth has flattened near $2 billion monthly. The confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and pivot toward a 2027 listing—rather than late 2026—introduce modest timing uncertainty yet leave the probability of no IPO by end-2027 below 10%. These factors, combined with OpenAI’s ambition for a $1 trillion-plus debut and strong AI-sector multiples, drive the 37.6% implied probability on the 1.5T+ outcome while embedding realistic scenarios for lower ranges if losses widen or macro conditions tighten.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
音量
$90,303終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 $122 billion funding round, paired with $24–25 billion annualized revenue run rate, underpins trader consensus for a closing market cap above $1.25 trillion. Enterprise revenue now exceeds 40% of total and continues scaling, even as overall growth has flattened near $2 billion monthly. The confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and pivot toward a 2027 listing—rather than late 2026—introduce modest timing uncertainty yet leave the probability of no IPO by end-2027 below 10%. These factors, combined with OpenAI’s ambition for a $1 trillion-plus debut and strong AI-sector multiples, drive the 37.6% implied probability on the 1.5T+ outcome while embedding realistic scenarios for lower ranges if losses widen or macro conditions tighten.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$90,303終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 $122 billion funding round, paired with $24–25 billion annualized revenue run rate, underpins trader consensus for a closing market cap above $1.25 trillion. Enterprise revenue now exceeds 40% of total and continues scaling, even as overall growth has flattened near $2 billion monthly. The confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and pivot toward a 2027 listing—rather than late 2026—introduce modest timing uncertainty yet leave the probability of no IPO by end-2027 below 10%. These factors, combined with OpenAI’s ambition for a $1 trillion-plus debut and strong AI-sector multiples, drive the 37.6% implied probability on the 1.5T+ outcome while embedding realistic scenarios for lower ranges if losses widen or macro conditions tighten.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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