OpenAI’s rapid revenue expansion to roughly $2 billion monthly, with enterprise contributions exceeding 40 percent and on track for parity with consumer segments by year-end, underpins the leading 36.3 percent implied probability for a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap. The company’s March 2026 private round at an $852 billion valuation, combined with confidential S-1 filing in mid-2026 and banker preparations targeting up to $1 trillion, has anchored trader expectations near or above that threshold despite a June shift toward a potential 2027 debut. Market-implied odds for the $1.25–1.5 trillion and $1–1.25 trillion brackets reflect consensus on sustained AI-sector momentum and OpenAI’s competitive positioning, while the low 9.5 percent chance of no IPO by end-2027 incorporates execution risks around profitability and regulatory scrutiny ahead of any listing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1.5兆ドル以上 36.2%
1.25兆〜1.5兆 23%
1兆～1.25兆 21.0%
7,500億～1兆 11%
$89,170 Vol.
$89,170 Vol.
2027/12/31
5,000億未満
1%
5,000億〜7,500億ドル
3%
7,500億～1兆
11%
1兆～1.25兆
21%
1.25兆〜1.5兆
23%
1.5兆ドル以上
36%
2027年12月31日までに上場しない
10%
1.5兆ドル以上 36.2%
1.25兆〜1.5兆 23%
1兆～1.25兆 21.0%
7,500億～1兆 11%
$89,170 Vol.
$89,170 Vol.
2027/12/31
5,000億未満
$6,134 Vol.
1%
5,000億〜7,500億ドル
$8,207 Vol.
3%
7,500億～1兆
$9,178 Vol.
11%
1兆～1.25兆
$13,974 Vol.
21%
1.25兆〜1.5兆
$8,540 Vol.
23%
1.5兆ドル以上
$23,804 Vol.
36%
2027年12月31日までに上場しない
$19,333 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s rapid revenue expansion to roughly $2 billion monthly, with enterprise contributions exceeding 40 percent and on track for parity with consumer segments by year-end, underpins the leading 36.3 percent implied probability for a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap. The company’s March 2026 private round at an $852 billion valuation, combined with confidential S-1 filing in mid-2026 and banker preparations targeting up to $1 trillion, has anchored trader expectations near or above that threshold despite a June shift toward a potential 2027 debut. Market-implied odds for the $1.25–1.5 trillion and $1–1.25 trillion brackets reflect consensus on sustained AI-sector momentum and OpenAI’s competitive positioning, while the low 9.5 percent chance of no IPO by end-2027 incorporates execution risks around profitability and regulatory scrutiny ahead of any listing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
音量
$89,170終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s rapid revenue expansion to roughly $2 billion monthly, with enterprise contributions exceeding 40 percent and on track for parity with consumer segments by year-end, underpins the leading 36.3 percent implied probability for a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap. The company’s March 2026 private round at an $852 billion valuation, combined with confidential S-1 filing in mid-2026 and banker preparations targeting up to $1 trillion, has anchored trader expectations near or above that threshold despite a June shift toward a potential 2027 debut. Market-implied odds for the $1.25–1.5 trillion and $1–1.25 trillion brackets reflect consensus on sustained AI-sector momentum and OpenAI’s competitive positioning, while the low 9.5 percent chance of no IPO by end-2027 incorporates execution risks around profitability and regulatory scrutiny ahead of any listing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$89,170終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s rapid revenue expansion to roughly $2 billion monthly, with enterprise contributions exceeding 40 percent and on track for parity with consumer segments by year-end, underpins the leading 36.3 percent implied probability for a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap. The company’s March 2026 private round at an $852 billion valuation, combined with confidential S-1 filing in mid-2026 and banker preparations targeting up to $1 trillion, has anchored trader expectations near or above that threshold despite a June shift toward a potential 2027 debut. Market-implied odds for the $1.25–1.5 trillion and $1–1.25 trillion brackets reflect consensus on sustained AI-sector momentum and OpenAI’s competitive positioning, while the low 9.5 percent chance of no IPO by end-2027 incorporates execution risks around profitability and regulatory scrutiny ahead of any listing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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