Sam Altman’s September 12 statements ruling out a 2026 OpenAI IPO, citing the need to prioritize AI safety and alignment work ahead of any listing, represent the dominant near-term driver of trader sentiment. With the company having confidentially filed in June yet facing no immediate pressure to proceed, market-implied odds favor a $100B+ raise at 46% once safety benchmarks and coordination with regulators advance, while the 27% probability on a sub-$30B outcome prices in potential delays or scaled-back ambitions. OpenAI’s latest private round at an $852 billion valuation and broader AI-sector fundraising provide context for expectations of a landmark offering, though timing uncertainty and regulatory scrutiny introduce volatility in the implied probabilities ahead of any 2027 window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$100B+ 41%
<$30B 26.9%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
$70B–$80B 8.7%
新規
新規
2027/12/30
<$30B
27%
$30B–$40B
4%
$40B–$50B
24%
$50B–$60B
6%
$60B–$70B
8%
$70B–$80B
9%
$80B–$90B
21%
$90B–$100B
3%
$100B+
45%
$100B+ 41%
<$30B 26.9%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
$70B–$80B 8.7%
新規
新規
2027/12/30
<$30B
$603 Vol.
27%
$30B–$40B
$463 Vol.
4%
$40B–$50B
$1,621 Vol.
24%
$50B–$60B
$1,153 Vol.
6%
$60B–$70B
$499 Vol.
8%
$70B–$80B
$489 Vol.
9%
$80B–$90B
$448 Vol.
21%
$90B–$100B
$306 Vol.
3%
$100B+
$1,742 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sam Altman’s September 12 statements ruling out a 2026 OpenAI IPO, citing the need to prioritize AI safety and alignment work ahead of any listing, represent the dominant near-term driver of trader sentiment. With the company having confidentially filed in June yet facing no immediate pressure to proceed, market-implied odds favor a $100B+ raise at 46% once safety benchmarks and coordination with regulators advance, while the 27% probability on a sub-$30B outcome prices in potential delays or scaled-back ambitions. OpenAI’s latest private round at an $852 billion valuation and broader AI-sector fundraising provide context for expectations of a landmark offering, though timing uncertainty and regulatory scrutiny introduce volatility in the implied probabilities ahead of any 2027 window.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
音量
$7,324終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sam Altman’s September 12 statements ruling out a 2026 OpenAI IPO, citing the need to prioritize AI safety and alignment work ahead of any listing, represent the dominant near-term driver of trader sentiment. With the company having confidentially filed in June yet facing no immediate pressure to proceed, market-implied odds favor a $100B+ raise at 46% once safety benchmarks and coordination with regulators advance, while the 27% probability on a sub-$30B outcome prices in potential delays or scaled-back ambitions. OpenAI’s latest private round at an $852 billion valuation and broader AI-sector fundraising provide context for expectations of a landmark offering, though timing uncertainty and regulatory scrutiny introduce volatility in the implied probabilities ahead of any 2027 window.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$7,324終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Sam Altman’s September 12 statements ruling out a 2026 OpenAI IPO, citing the need to prioritize AI safety and alignment work ahead of any listing, represent the dominant near-term driver of trader sentiment. With the company having confidentially filed in June yet facing no immediate pressure to proceed, market-implied odds favor a $100B+ raise at 46% once safety benchmarks and coordination with regulators advance, while the 27% probability on a sub-$30B outcome prices in potential delays or scaled-back ambitions. OpenAI’s latest private round at an $852 billion valuation and broader AI-sector fundraising provide context for expectations of a landmark offering, though timing uncertainty and regulatory scrutiny introduce volatility in the implied probabilities ahead of any 2027 window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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