Recent releases from Anthropic have pushed Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 into the lead on Arena AI’s overall text leaderboard with scores near 1525 and 1510 Elo, respectively, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and xAI’s Grok-4.6. Traders are watching whether continued scaling, post-training refinements, and new inference techniques can add another 50–100 points by year-end, given historical gains of roughly 30–60 points per major release cycle. Competitive pressure remains high as Google, DeepSeek, and open-weight contenders like Qwen and Kimi iterate rapidly, while any regulatory scrutiny on frontier training runs or compute limits could slow progress. Key catalysts through December include expected model drops at developer conferences and earnings calls, plus potential leaderboard re-baselining that could shift resolution thresholds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$141,736 Vol.
2026/12/31
↑ 1520
61%
↑ 1530
29%
↑ 1540
18%
↑ 1550
12%
↑ 1600
10%
↑ 1650
8%
↑ 1700
3%
$141,736 Vol.
↑ 1520
$7,214 Vol.
61%
↑ 1530
$6,985 Vol.
29%
↑ 1540
$1,337 Vol.
18%
↑ 1550
$48,924 Vol.
12%
↑ 1600
$23,009 Vol.
10%
↑ 1650
$8,600 Vol.
8%
↑ 1700
$9,009 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic have pushed Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 into the lead on Arena AI’s overall text leaderboard with scores near 1525 and 1510 Elo, respectively, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and xAI’s Grok-4.6. Traders are watching whether continued scaling, post-training refinements, and new inference techniques can add another 50–100 points by year-end, given historical gains of roughly 30–60 points per major release cycle. Competitive pressure remains high as Google, DeepSeek, and open-weight contenders like Qwen and Kimi iterate rapidly, while any regulatory scrutiny on frontier training runs or compute limits could slow progress. Key catalysts through December include expected model drops at developer conferences and earnings calls, plus potential leaderboard re-baselining that could shift resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
音量
$141,736終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic have pushed Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 into the lead on Arena AI’s overall text leaderboard with scores near 1525 and 1510 Elo, respectively, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and xAI’s Grok-4.6. Traders are watching whether continued scaling, post-training refinements, and new inference techniques can add another 50–100 points by year-end, given historical gains of roughly 30–60 points per major release cycle. Competitive pressure remains high as Google, DeepSeek, and open-weight contenders like Qwen and Kimi iterate rapidly, while any regulatory scrutiny on frontier training runs or compute limits could slow progress. Key catalysts through December include expected model drops at developer conferences and earnings calls, plus potential leaderboard re-baselining that could shift resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$141,736終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent releases from Anthropic have pushed Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 into the lead on Arena AI’s overall text leaderboard with scores near 1525 and 1510 Elo, respectively, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and xAI’s Grok-4.6. Traders are watching whether continued scaling, post-training refinements, and new inference techniques can add another 50–100 points by year-end, given historical gains of roughly 30–60 points per major release cycle. Competitive pressure remains high as Google, DeepSeek, and open-weight contenders like Qwen and Kimi iterate rapidly, while any regulatory scrutiny on frontier training runs or compute limits could slow progress. Key catalysts through December include expected model drops at developer conferences and earnings calls, plus potential leaderboard re-baselining that could shift resolution thresholds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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