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icon for AIモデルは9月30日までにアリーナの総合スコア___に到達しますか?

AIモデルは9月30日までにアリーナの総合スコア___に到達しますか?

icon for AIモデルは9月30日までにアリーナの総合スコア___に到達しますか?

AIモデルは9月30日までにアリーナの総合スコア___に到達しますか?

$31,305 Vol.

2026/09/30
Polymarket

$31,305 Vol.

Polymarket

1510

$12,005 Vol.

75%

1520

$3,169 Vol.

50%

1530

$6,027 Vol.

33%

1540

$2,025 Vol.

28%

1550

$8,079 Vol.

15%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from OpenAI and Anthropic have pushed top large language models into the 1500–1560 Overall Arena Score range on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with GPT-5.5 variants and Claude Opus 4.7 leading through May 2026. Traders are watching continued scaling of model size, training compute, and post-training optimizations that historically lift scores by 20–50 points per major update. Competitive pressure from Google’s Gemini-3 series and open-weight contenders such as Qwen and DeepSeek adds momentum, as each lab targets incremental gains ahead of the September 30 resolution window. Key upcoming catalysts include expected summer model iterations, developer conferences, and benchmark disclosures that could accelerate or stall progress toward higher Arena thresholds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$31,305
終了日
2026/09/30
マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from OpenAI and Anthropic have pushed top large language models into the 1500–1560 Overall Arena Score range on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with GPT-5.5 variants and Claude Opus 4.7 leading through May 2026. Traders are watching continued scaling of model size, training compute, and post-training optimizations that historically lift scores by 20–50 points per major update. Competitive pressure from Google’s Gemini-3 series and open-weight contenders such as Qwen and DeepSeek adds momentum, as each lab targets incremental gains ahead of the September 30 resolution window. Key upcoming catalysts include expected summer model iterations, developer conferences, and benchmark disclosures that could accelerate or stall progress toward higher Arena thresholds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$31,305
終了日
2026/09/30
マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

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よくある質問

「AIモデルは9月30日までにアリーナの総合スコア___に到達しますか?」はPolymarket上の5個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「1510」で75%、次いで「1520」が50%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、75¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に75%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「AIモデルは9月30日までにアリーナの総合スコア___に到達しますか?」は$31.3Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Apr 2, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「AIモデルは9月30日までにアリーナの総合スコア___に到達しますか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている5個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「AIモデルは9月30日までにアリーナの総合スコア___に到達しますか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「1510」で75%であり、市場がこの結果に75%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「1520」で50%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「AIモデルは9月30日までにアリーナの総合スコア___に到達しますか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。