Anthropic's Claude Opus 5, Mythos 5, and Fable 5 variants currently lead most major leaderboards, including BenchAlign and intelligence indices, reflecting strong recent releases and iterative gains in reasoning and agentic tasks. Trader sentiment reflects this edge alongside OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol rollout and xAI's Grok 4.6 updates, which keep the frontier tightly contested among a handful of labs. Frequent model drops, benchmark refreshes, and shifts in areas like coding or long-context performance could alter rankings before year-end, while Meta and Google prepare later 2026 launches that may influence final positioning. Market-implied odds capture the uncertainty around which single company will top aggregate evaluations by December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$125,766 Vol.
OpenAI
35%
20%
アリババ
13%
Meta
13%
xAI
13%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
ムーンショット
8%
DeepSeek
8%
百度
7%
Amazon
6%
マイクロソフト
6%
Meituan
5%
ミストラル
3%
$125,766 Vol.
OpenAI
35%
20%
アリババ
13%
Meta
13%
xAI
13%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
ムーンショット
8%
DeepSeek
8%
百度
7%
Amazon
6%
マイクロソフト
6%
Meituan
5%
ミストラル
3%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Opus 5, Mythos 5, and Fable 5 variants currently lead most major leaderboards, including BenchAlign and intelligence indices, reflecting strong recent releases and iterative gains in reasoning and agentic tasks. Trader sentiment reflects this edge alongside OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol rollout and xAI's Grok 4.6 updates, which keep the frontier tightly contested among a handful of labs. Frequent model drops, benchmark refreshes, and shifts in areas like coding or long-context performance could alter rankings before year-end, while Meta and Google prepare later 2026 launches that may influence final positioning. Market-implied odds capture the uncertainty around which single company will top aggregate evaluations by December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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