As of mid-August 2026, trader sentiment on which companies will claim a #1 AI model by year-end reflects intense frontier competition among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI. Anthropic’s July Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases currently lead several independent benchmarks including intelligence and agentic indices, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol family maintains strong showings in coding and reasoning tasks. xAI’s Grok 4.6 post-training update on August 12 delivered notable gains, closing gaps on multiple leaderboards at competitive pricing. Google continues iterating with recent Gemini 3.x variants emphasizing speed and multimodal capabilities. The market prices in the likelihood of further releases or refinements through December that could shift top rankings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$125,904 Vol.
OpenAI
34%
20%
アリババ
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
ムーンショット
8%
DeepSeek
8%
百度
7%
マイクロソフト
6%
Meituan
5%
Amazon
4%
ミストラル
3%
$125,904 Vol.
OpenAI
34%
20%
アリババ
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
ムーンショット
8%
DeepSeek
8%
百度
7%
マイクロソフト
6%
Meituan
5%
Amazon
4%
ミストラル
3%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...As of mid-August 2026, trader sentiment on which companies will claim a #1 AI model by year-end reflects intense frontier competition among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI. Anthropic’s July Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases currently lead several independent benchmarks including intelligence and agentic indices, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol family maintains strong showings in coding and reasoning tasks. xAI’s Grok 4.6 post-training update on August 12 delivered notable gains, closing gaps on multiple leaderboards at competitive pricing. Google continues iterating with recent Gemini 3.x variants emphasizing speed and multimodal capabilities. The market prices in the likelihood of further releases or refinements through December that could shift top rankings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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