The tight race among frontier AI labs shapes trader expectations for which company claims the top model by year-end, with OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI clustered within narrow benchmark margins as of mid-May 2026. OpenAI’s April GPT-5.5 release strengthened its lead on math and general reasoning arenas, while Anthropic’s early-May Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview updates extended dominance in agentic coding and science benchmarks such as GPQA. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues closing gaps on efficiency and multimodal tasks, and xAI’s Grok 4.3 beta keeps pace on context length. With rapid iteration cycles typical in this space and no clear frontrunner across all evaluations, upcoming developer conferences and further releases could still shift the leaderboard before December.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$14,200 Vol.
2026/12/31
77%
OpenAI
40%
xAI
21%
ByteDance
15%
Meta
14%
Z.ai
11%
DeepSeek
10%
Microsoft
10%
Alibaba
9%
Moonshot
9%
Baidu
9%
Amazon
9%
Mistral
8%
Meituan
7%
$14,200 Vol.
$1,874 Vol.
77%
OpenAI
$3,368 Vol.
40%
xAI
$3,158 Vol.
21%
ByteDance
$1,157 Vol.
15%
Meta
$881 Vol.
14%
Z.ai
$82 Vol.
11%
DeepSeek
$440 Vol.
10%
Microsoft
$100 Vol.
10%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
9%
Moonshot
$320 Vol.
9%
Baidu
$102 Vol.
9%
Amazon
$86 Vol.
9%
Mistral
$1,448 Vol.
8%
Meituan
$1,183 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.The tight race among frontier AI labs shapes trader expectations for which company claims the top model by year-end, with OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI clustered within narrow benchmark margins as of mid-May 2026. OpenAI’s April GPT-5.5 release strengthened its lead on math and general reasoning arenas, while Anthropic’s early-May Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview updates extended dominance in agentic coding and science benchmarks such as GPQA. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues closing gaps on efficiency and multimodal tasks, and xAI’s Grok 4.3 beta keeps pace on context length. With rapid iteration cycles typical in this space and no clear frontrunner across all evaluations, upcoming developer conferences and further releases could still shift the leaderboard before December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
音量
$14,200終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.The tight race among frontier AI labs shapes trader expectations for which company claims the top model by year-end, with OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI clustered within narrow benchmark margins as of mid-May 2026. OpenAI’s April GPT-5.5 release strengthened its lead on math and general reasoning arenas, while Anthropic’s early-May Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview updates extended dominance in agentic coding and science benchmarks such as GPQA. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues closing gaps on efficiency and multimodal tasks, and xAI’s Grok 4.3 beta keeps pace on context length. With rapid iteration cycles typical in this space and no clear frontrunner across all evaluations, upcoming developer conferences and further releases could still shift the leaderboard before December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$14,200終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The tight race among frontier AI labs shapes trader expectations for which company claims the top model by year-end, with OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI clustered within narrow benchmark margins as of mid-May 2026. OpenAI’s April GPT-5.5 release strengthened its lead on math and general reasoning arenas, while Anthropic’s early-May Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview updates extended dominance in agentic coding and science benchmarks such as GPQA. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro continues closing gaps on efficiency and multimodal tasks, and xAI’s Grok 4.3 beta keeps pace on context length. With rapid iteration cycles typical in this space and no clear frontrunner across all evaluations, upcoming developer conferences and further releases could still shift the leaderboard before December.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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