Google's recent Gemini 4 Argon release on September 30 has driven its 69.6% implied probability, as the model matches or exceeds GPT-6 Astra and Claude Opus 5.5 on key intelligence indices, Arena text and creative boards, and hallucination metrics while offering strong performance in long-context research, coding, and cybersecurity tasks. Anthropic's 30.5% reflects sustained leadership from its September Claude 5 family updates across multiple agentic and coding benchmarks, though recent gains by Google have narrowed the gap. OpenAI's low 0.7% odds stem from GPT-6 Astra's competitive but non-dominant positioning on several leaderboards despite strong agentic results. With resolution near the end of October and limited immediate catalysts expected, trader consensus centers on Google's momentum from the fresh flagship launch amid a crowded frontier where no single large language model dominates every capability area.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日View resolved






















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