The rarity of extreme-magnitude events underpins the 73% market-implied odds favoring no qualifying natural disaster through year-end. Historical records show magnitude 9+ earthquakes occur roughly once per decade on average, with the last in 2011, while Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6+ eruptions are even less frequent, the most recent being Mount Pinatubo in 1991. First-half 2026 global losses fell slightly below the ten-year average according to Munich Re data, with no reports of qualifying seismic, volcanic, or extraterrestrial impacts through mid-August. Official monitoring by the USGS and global volcanic networks shows no current precursors indicating imminent threshold events, though short-term forecast uncertainty remains inherent in rare-event modeling.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
27% 確率
$240,264 Vol.
$240,264 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
27% 確率
$240,264 Vol.
$240,264 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
The rarity of extreme-magnitude events underpins the 73% market-implied odds favoring no qualifying natural disaster through year-end. Historical records show magnitude 9+ earthquakes occur roughly once per decade on average, with the last in 2011, while Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6+ eruptions are even less frequent, the most recent being Mount Pinatubo in 1991. First-half 2026 global losses fell slightly below the ten-year average according to Munich Re data, with no reports of qualifying seismic, volcanic, or extraterrestrial impacts through mid-August. Official monitoring by the USGS and global volcanic networks shows no current precursors indicating imminent threshold events, though short-term forecast uncertainty remains inherent in rare-event modeling.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$240,264終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
The rarity of extreme-magnitude events underpins the 73% market-implied odds favoring no qualifying natural disaster through year-end. Historical records show magnitude 9+ earthquakes occur roughly once per decade on average, with the last in 2011, while Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6+ eruptions are even less frequent, the most recent being Mount Pinatubo in 1991. First-half 2026 global losses fell slightly below the ten-year average according to Munich Re data, with no reports of qualifying seismic, volcanic, or extraterrestrial impacts through mid-August. Official monitoring by the USGS and global volcanic networks shows no current precursors indicating imminent threshold events, though short-term forecast uncertainty remains inherent in rare-event modeling.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$240,264終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The rarity of extreme-magnitude events underpins the 73% market-implied odds favoring no qualifying natural disaster through year-end. Historical records show magnitude 9+ earthquakes occur roughly once per decade on average, with the last in 2011, while Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6+ eruptions are even less frequent, the most recent being Mount Pinatubo in 1991. First-half 2026 global losses fell slightly below the ten-year average according to Munich Re data, with no reports of qualifying seismic, volcanic, or extraterrestrial impacts through mid-August. Official monitoring by the USGS and global volcanic networks shows no current precursors indicating imminent threshold events, though short-term forecast uncertainty remains inherent in rare-event modeling.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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