Traders assign a 73% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 primarily because the market uses an extremely high threshold—likely Category 5 landfalls, megaquakes above magnitude 8.5, or other record-scale events—far exceeding typical annual activity. NOAA's 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook projects a below-normal season with only an 8–14 named storms, influenced by developing El Niño conditions that historically suppress formation. No qualifying events have materialized through mid-August amid ongoing but sub-threshold wildfires, droughts, and seismic activity monitored by USGS and NHC. This aligns with historical precedent where such extreme outliers remain rare within single-year windows, sustaining the current trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
27% 確率
$240,264 Vol.
$240,264 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
27% 確率
$240,264 Vol.
$240,264 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 73% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 primarily because the market uses an extremely high threshold—likely Category 5 landfalls, megaquakes above magnitude 8.5, or other record-scale events—far exceeding typical annual activity. NOAA's 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook projects a below-normal season with only an 8–14 named storms, influenced by developing El Niño conditions that historically suppress formation. No qualifying events have materialized through mid-August amid ongoing but sub-threshold wildfires, droughts, and seismic activity monitored by USGS and NHC. This aligns with historical precedent where such extreme outliers remain rare within single-year windows, sustaining the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$240,264終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 73% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 primarily because the market uses an extremely high threshold—likely Category 5 landfalls, megaquakes above magnitude 8.5, or other record-scale events—far exceeding typical annual activity. NOAA's 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook projects a below-normal season with only an 8–14 named storms, influenced by developing El Niño conditions that historically suppress formation. No qualifying events have materialized through mid-August amid ongoing but sub-threshold wildfires, droughts, and seismic activity monitored by USGS and NHC. This aligns with historical precedent where such extreme outliers remain rare within single-year windows, sustaining the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$240,264終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 73% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 primarily because the market uses an extremely high threshold—likely Category 5 landfalls, megaquakes above magnitude 8.5, or other record-scale events—far exceeding typical annual activity. NOAA's 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook projects a below-normal season with only an 8–14 named storms, influenced by developing El Niño conditions that historically suppress formation. No qualifying events have materialized through mid-August amid ongoing but sub-threshold wildfires, droughts, and seismic activity monitored by USGS and NHC. This aligns with historical precedent where such extreme outliers remain rare within single-year windows, sustaining the current trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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