Trader consensus prices "No" at 71.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US, 10kt+ meteor strike, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—due to the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: NOAA records show no Cat 5 US landfalls (hurricane season starts June 1), USGS logs no 8.5+ quakes (largest ~7.5 near Tonga), Global Volcanism Program reports no VEI ≥6 among 47 eruptions, and NASA CNEOS detects no 10kt+ impacts amid minor fireballs. Neutral ENSO conditions bolster NOAA's below-normal Atlantic activity forecast, historically rare for these extremes (e.g., last VEI 6 in 1991). Key watch: June hurricane outlooks and ongoing seismic/volcanic surveillance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$217,711 Vol.
$217,711 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$217,711 Vol.
$217,711 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices "No" at 71.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US, 10kt+ meteor strike, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—due to the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: NOAA records show no Cat 5 US landfalls (hurricane season starts June 1), USGS logs no 8.5+ quakes (largest ~7.5 near Tonga), Global Volcanism Program reports no VEI ≥6 among 47 eruptions, and NASA CNEOS detects no 10kt+ impacts amid minor fireballs. Neutral ENSO conditions bolster NOAA's below-normal Atlantic activity forecast, historically rare for these extremes (e.g., last VEI 6 in 1991). Key watch: June hurricane outlooks and ongoing seismic/volcanic surveillance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$217,711終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices "No" at 71.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US, 10kt+ meteor strike, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—due to the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: NOAA records show no Cat 5 US landfalls (hurricane season starts June 1), USGS logs no 8.5+ quakes (largest ~7.5 near Tonga), Global Volcanism Program reports no VEI ≥6 among 47 eruptions, and NASA CNEOS detects no 10kt+ impacts amid minor fireballs. Neutral ENSO conditions bolster NOAA's below-normal Atlantic activity forecast, historically rare for these extremes (e.g., last VEI 6 in 1991). Key watch: June hurricane outlooks and ongoing seismic/volcanic surveillance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$217,711終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 71.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US, 10kt+ meteor strike, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—due to the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: NOAA records show no Cat 5 US landfalls (hurricane season starts June 1), USGS logs no 8.5+ quakes (largest ~7.5 near Tonga), Global Volcanism Program reports no VEI ≥6 among 47 eruptions, and NASA CNEOS detects no 10kt+ impacts amid minor fireballs. Neutral ENSO conditions bolster NOAA's below-normal Atlantic activity forecast, historically rare for these extremes (e.g., last VEI 6 in 1991). Key watch: June hurricane outlooks and ongoing seismic/volcanic surveillance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問