NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no tracked asteroids with impact risk for 2026, driving the 83% market-implied odds favoring "No" major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent. Early 2026's surge in fireballs—over 2,300 reported in Q1 per American Meteor Society data, with the largest (Ohio, March 17) at just 0.25 kt—heightened awareness but fell well short of the threshold, reinforcing rarity absent specific threats. Recent safe close approaches, like asteroid 2026 JH2's flyby on May 18, underscore effective planetary defense monitoring via infrared telescopes like the advancing NEO Surveyor. Traders weigh undiscovered bolides as the slim 17% tail risk, with new CNEOS alerts as key catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$153,356 Vol.
$153,356 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$153,356 Vol.
$153,356 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no tracked asteroids with impact risk for 2026, driving the 83% market-implied odds favoring "No" major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent. Early 2026's surge in fireballs—over 2,300 reported in Q1 per American Meteor Society data, with the largest (Ohio, March 17) at just 0.25 kt—heightened awareness but fell well short of the threshold, reinforcing rarity absent specific threats. Recent safe close approaches, like asteroid 2026 JH2's flyby on May 18, underscore effective planetary defense monitoring via infrared telescopes like the advancing NEO Surveyor. Traders weigh undiscovered bolides as the slim 17% tail risk, with new CNEOS alerts as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
音量
$153,356終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no tracked asteroids with impact risk for 2026, driving the 83% market-implied odds favoring "No" major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent. Early 2026's surge in fireballs—over 2,300 reported in Q1 per American Meteor Society data, with the largest (Ohio, March 17) at just 0.25 kt—heightened awareness but fell well short of the threshold, reinforcing rarity absent specific threats. Recent safe close approaches, like asteroid 2026 JH2's flyby on May 18, underscore effective planetary defense monitoring via infrared telescopes like the advancing NEO Surveyor. Traders weigh undiscovered bolides as the slim 17% tail risk, with new CNEOS alerts as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$153,356終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no tracked asteroids with impact risk for 2026, driving the 83% market-implied odds favoring "No" major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent. Early 2026's surge in fireballs—over 2,300 reported in Q1 per American Meteor Society data, with the largest (Ohio, March 17) at just 0.25 kt—heightened awareness but fell well short of the threshold, reinforcing rarity absent specific threats. Recent safe close approaches, like asteroid 2026 JH2's flyby on May 18, underscore effective planetary defense monitoring via infrared telescopes like the advancing NEO Surveyor. Traders weigh undiscovered bolides as the slim 17% tail risk, with new CNEOS alerts as key catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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