**Met Office provisional data released in early September shows summer 2026 (June–August) achieved a UK mean temperature of 16.5°C, exceeding the 2025 record by 0.4°C and ranking as the warmest since 1884.** Multiple heatwaves produced 33 days above 30°C, nine days above 35°C, and a seasonal peak of 38.1°C, with 54 stations setting all-time daily maxima; the season also ranked among the sunniest on record in places. Attribution studies indicate human-induced climate change made these temperatures around 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. Traders’ 98% implied probability for a new record reflects this substantial margin over prior benchmarks, though final verified figures—expected soon—could see minor revisions from additional station data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日98% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/30
98% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.**Met Office provisional data released in early September shows summer 2026 (June–August) achieved a UK mean temperature of 16.5°C, exceeding the 2025 record by 0.4°C and ranking as the warmest since 1884.** Multiple heatwaves produced 33 days above 30°C, nine days above 35°C, and a seasonal peak of 38.1°C, with 54 stations setting all-time daily maxima; the season also ranked among the sunniest on record in places. Attribution studies indicate human-induced climate change made these temperatures around 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. Traders’ 98% implied probability for a new record reflects this substantial margin over prior benchmarks, though final verified figures—expected soon—could see minor revisions from additional station data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
音量
$1,684終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.**Met Office provisional data released in early September shows summer 2026 (June–August) achieved a UK mean temperature of 16.5°C, exceeding the 2025 record by 0.4°C and ranking as the warmest since 1884.** Multiple heatwaves produced 33 days above 30°C, nine days above 35°C, and a seasonal peak of 38.1°C, with 54 stations setting all-time daily maxima; the season also ranked among the sunniest on record in places. Attribution studies indicate human-induced climate change made these temperatures around 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. Traders’ 98% implied probability for a new record reflects this substantial margin over prior benchmarks, though final verified figures—expected soon—could see minor revisions from additional station data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,684終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET**Met Office provisional data released in early September shows summer 2026 (June–August) achieved a UK mean temperature of 16.5°C, exceeding the 2025 record by 0.4°C and ranking as the warmest since 1884.** Multiple heatwaves produced 33 days above 30°C, nine days above 35°C, and a seasonal peak of 38.1°C, with 54 stations setting all-time daily maxima; the season also ranked among the sunniest on record in places. Attribution studies indicate human-induced climate change made these temperatures around 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. Traders’ 98% implied probability for a new record reflects this substantial margin over prior benchmarks, though final verified figures—expected soon—could see minor revisions from additional station data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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