Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 70.5% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming in August 2026, stems from persistently quiet basin conditions and NOAA’s maintained below-normal seasonal outlook. Only three short-lived tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have developed through mid-August, with the National Hurricane Center reporting no formation expected over the next seven days amid suppressed activity. El Niño influences, cooler Atlantic sea-surface temperatures relative to recent years, and model consensus favoring limited intensification have delayed the season’s first hurricane well beyond the typical mid-August climatological average. With peak activity still ahead in September, any shift in steering patterns or rapid model changes could alter late-month odds, though current observations support the elevated probability of an August without a hurricane.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年8月に大西洋でハリケーンは発生しない 71%
2026年8月27日から8月31日 20%
2026年8月22日から8月26日 9%
2026年8月17日から8月21日 1.4%
新規
新規
2026/08/17
2026年8月13日から8月16日
<1%
2026年8月17日から8月21日
1%
2026年8月22日から8月26日
9%
2026年8月27日から8月31日
20%
2026年8月に大西洋でハリケーンは発生しない
71%
2026年8月に大西洋でハリケーンは発生しない 71%
2026年8月27日から8月31日 20%
2026年8月22日から8月26日 9%
2026年8月17日から8月21日 1.4%
新規
新規
2026/08/17
2026年8月13日から8月16日
$427 Vol.
<1%
2026年8月17日から8月21日
$167 Vol.
1%
2026年8月22日から8月26日
$160 Vol.
9%
2026年8月27日から8月31日
$765 Vol.
20%
2026年8月に大西洋でハリケーンは発生しない
$1,112 Vol.
71%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 70.5% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming in August 2026, stems from persistently quiet basin conditions and NOAA’s maintained below-normal seasonal outlook. Only three short-lived tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have developed through mid-August, with the National Hurricane Center reporting no formation expected over the next seven days amid suppressed activity. El Niño influences, cooler Atlantic sea-surface temperatures relative to recent years, and model consensus favoring limited intensification have delayed the season’s first hurricane well beyond the typical mid-August climatological average. With peak activity still ahead in September, any shift in steering patterns or rapid model changes could alter late-month odds, though current observations support the elevated probability of an August without a hurricane.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
音量
$2,632終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 70.5% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming in August 2026, stems from persistently quiet basin conditions and NOAA’s maintained below-normal seasonal outlook. Only three short-lived tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have developed through mid-August, with the National Hurricane Center reporting no formation expected over the next seven days amid suppressed activity. El Niño influences, cooler Atlantic sea-surface temperatures relative to recent years, and model consensus favoring limited intensification have delayed the season’s first hurricane well beyond the typical mid-August climatological average. With peak activity still ahead in September, any shift in steering patterns or rapid model changes could alter late-month odds, though current observations support the elevated probability of an August without a hurricane.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
音量
$2,632終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 70.5% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming in August 2026, stems from persistently quiet basin conditions and NOAA’s maintained below-normal seasonal outlook. Only three short-lived tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have developed through mid-August, with the National Hurricane Center reporting no formation expected over the next seven days amid suppressed activity. El Niño influences, cooler Atlantic sea-surface temperatures relative to recent years, and model consensus favoring limited intensification have delayed the season’s first hurricane well beyond the typical mid-August climatological average. With peak activity still ahead in September, any shift in steering patterns or rapid model changes could alter late-month odds, though current observations support the elevated probability of an August without a hurricane.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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