Record-low 2026 winter Arctic sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers has reduced the starting ice volume available for summer melt, elevating trader focus on outcomes near 4.4–4.6 million square kilometers. Ongoing long-term decline of roughly 12% per decade from warmer ocean and air temperatures, combined with divergent regional melt patterns observed through late July, sustains uncertainty across the 4.2–4.8 million range. Model consensus and satellite monitoring through August will clarify whether atmospheric patterns accelerate or slow the seasonal retreat before the September minimum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？
この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル 28.1%
460万〜480万平方キロメートル 27.1%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル 23.8%
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル 16.8%
$66,635 Vol.
$66,635 Vol.
2026/10/01
400万平方キロメートル未満
12%
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル
17%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル
24%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル
28%
460万〜480万平方キロメートル
27%
480万～500万平方キロメートル
3%
500万平方キロメートル超
3%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル 28.1%
460万〜480万平方キロメートル 27.1%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル 23.8%
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル 16.8%
$66,635 Vol.
$66,635 Vol.
2026/10/01
400万平方キロメートル未満
$30,295 Vol.
12%
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル
$6,497 Vol.
17%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル
$2,846 Vol.
24%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル
$3,047 Vol.
28%
460万〜480万平方キロメートル
$6,757 Vol.
27%
480万～500万平方キロメートル
$2,809 Vol.
3%
500万平方キロメートル超
$14,385 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter Arctic sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers has reduced the starting ice volume available for summer melt, elevating trader focus on outcomes near 4.4–4.6 million square kilometers. Ongoing long-term decline of roughly 12% per decade from warmer ocean and air temperatures, combined with divergent regional melt patterns observed through late July, sustains uncertainty across the 4.2–4.8 million range. Model consensus and satellite monitoring through August will clarify whether atmospheric patterns accelerate or slow the seasonal retreat before the September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
マーケット開始日： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
音量
$66,635終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter Arctic sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers has reduced the starting ice volume available for summer melt, elevating trader focus on outcomes near 4.4–4.6 million square kilometers. Ongoing long-term decline of roughly 12% per decade from warmer ocean and air temperatures, combined with divergent regional melt patterns observed through late July, sustains uncertainty across the 4.2–4.8 million range. Model consensus and satellite monitoring through August will clarify whether atmospheric patterns accelerate or slow the seasonal retreat before the September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
音量
$66,635終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low 2026 winter Arctic sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers has reduced the starting ice volume available for summer melt, elevating trader focus on outcomes near 4.4–4.6 million square kilometers. Ongoing long-term decline of roughly 12% per decade from warmer ocean and air temperatures, combined with divergent regional melt patterns observed through late July, sustains uncertainty across the 4.2–4.8 million range. Model consensus and satellite monitoring through August will clarify whether atmospheric patterns accelerate or slow the seasonal retreat before the September minimum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問