Recent low winter maximum extent and early summer melt have anchored trader sentiment around 4.4–4.8 million km² for the 2026 Arctic minimum. Record-low March extent near 14.29 million km², combined with fifth-lowest June values and persistent warm anomalies over the East Siberian and Barents seas, has accelerated ice loss, leaving extent at roughly 6.2 million km² by early August—well below the 1991–2020 median. Model consensus and May forecasts point to a mid-September minimum near 4.5 million km², but divergence in August atmospheric patterns, cyclone activity, and remaining ice thickness create comparable probabilities across the central bins. Updated NSIDC and NOAA model runs through late August will likely shift odds as melt rates clarify.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？
この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？
460万〜480万平方キロメートル 28.4%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル 28.1%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル 25.0%
400万平方キロメートル未満 15%
$66,250 Vol.
$66,250 Vol.
2026/10/01
400万平方キロメートル未満
15%
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル
9%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル
25%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル
28%
460万〜480万平方キロメートル
28%
480万～500万平方キロメートル
1%
500万平方キロメートル超
3%
460万〜480万平方キロメートル 28.4%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル 28.1%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル 25.0%
400万平方キロメートル未満 15%
$66,250 Vol.
$66,250 Vol.
2026/10/01
400万平方キロメートル未満
$30,184 Vol.
15%
4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル
$6,472 Vol.
9%
4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル
$2,798 Vol.
25%
4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル
$3,035 Vol.
28%
460万〜480万平方キロメートル
$6,598 Vol.
28%
480万～500万平方キロメートル
$2,783 Vol.
1%
500万平方キロメートル超
$14,380 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum extent and early summer melt have anchored trader sentiment around 4.4–4.8 million km² for the 2026 Arctic minimum. Record-low March extent near 14.29 million km², combined with fifth-lowest June values and persistent warm anomalies over the East Siberian and Barents seas, has accelerated ice loss, leaving extent at roughly 6.2 million km² by early August—well below the 1991–2020 median. Model consensus and May forecasts point to a mid-September minimum near 4.5 million km², but divergence in August atmospheric patterns, cyclone activity, and remaining ice thickness create comparable probabilities across the central bins. Updated NSIDC and NOAA model runs through late August will likely shift odds as melt rates clarify.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
マーケット開始日： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
音量
$66,250終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum extent and early summer melt have anchored trader sentiment around 4.4–4.8 million km² for the 2026 Arctic minimum. Record-low March extent near 14.29 million km², combined with fifth-lowest June values and persistent warm anomalies over the East Siberian and Barents seas, has accelerated ice loss, leaving extent at roughly 6.2 million km² by early August—well below the 1991–2020 median. Model consensus and May forecasts point to a mid-September minimum near 4.5 million km², but divergence in August atmospheric patterns, cyclone activity, and remaining ice thickness create comparable probabilities across the central bins. Updated NSIDC and NOAA model runs through late August will likely shift odds as melt rates clarify.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
音量
$66,250終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low winter maximum extent and early summer melt have anchored trader sentiment around 4.4–4.8 million km² for the 2026 Arctic minimum. Record-low March extent near 14.29 million km², combined with fifth-lowest June values and persistent warm anomalies over the East Siberian and Barents seas, has accelerated ice loss, leaving extent at roughly 6.2 million km² by early August—well below the 1991–2020 median. Model consensus and May forecasts point to a mid-September minimum near 4.5 million km², but divergence in August atmospheric patterns, cyclone activity, and remaining ice thickness create comparable probabilities across the central bins. Updated NSIDC and NOAA model runs through late August will likely shift odds as melt rates clarify.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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