**Forecast models and seasonal context position 13–14°C as the most probable range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on August 15, 2026.** Wellington’s August climatology features average daily highs near 12–13°C, with typical variability driven by the passage of cold fronts, southerly winds, and occasional warmer northerly flows. NIWA’s June–August 2026 outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with the current market-implied distribution that heavily favors 13°C and 14°C. Short-range guidance from sources such as MetService and international models currently projects highs of 11–14°C for the 15th, reflecting modest uncertainty in frontal timing and wind direction that can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. No significant anomalies or extreme events are indicated in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities for outcomes above 15°C or below 12°C low. Updated model consensus and any revised NIWA guidance ahead of the weekend will be the key near-term drivers of further market movement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月15日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
8月15日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
14°C 56%
13°C 26%
15°C 22%
12°C 8%
新規
新規
2026/08/15
9°C or below
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
7%
12°C
8%
13°C
26%
14°C
56%
15°C
17%
16°C
6%
17°C
3%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
2%
14°C 56%
13°C 26%
15°C 22%
12°C 8%
新規
新規
2026/08/15
9°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
10°C
$12 Vol.
3%
11°C
$0 Vol.
7%
12°C
$0 Vol.
8%
13°C
$53 Vol.
26%
14°C
$50 Vol.
56%
15°C
$54 Vol.
17%
16°C
$12 Vol.
6%
17°C
$12 Vol.
3%
18°C
$12 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$12 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and seasonal context position 13–14°C as the most probable range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on August 15, 2026.**
Wellington’s August climatology features average daily highs near 12–13°C, with typical variability driven by the passage of cold fronts, southerly winds, and occasional warmer northerly flows. NIWA’s June–August 2026 outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with the current market-implied distribution that heavily favors 13°C and 14°C. Short-range guidance from sources such as MetService and international models currently projects highs of 11–14°C for the 15th, reflecting modest uncertainty in frontal timing and wind direction that can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. No significant anomalies or extreme events are indicated in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities for outcomes above 15°C or below 12°C low. Updated model consensus and any revised NIWA guidance ahead of the weekend will be the key near-term drivers of further market movement.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$229終了日
2026/08/15マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and seasonal context position 13–14°C as the most probable range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on August 15, 2026.**
Wellington’s August climatology features average daily highs near 12–13°C, with typical variability driven by the passage of cold fronts, southerly winds, and occasional warmer northerly flows. NIWA’s June–August 2026 outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with the current market-implied distribution that heavily favors 13°C and 14°C. Short-range guidance from sources such as MetService and international models currently projects highs of 11–14°C for the 15th, reflecting modest uncertainty in frontal timing and wind direction that can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. No significant anomalies or extreme events are indicated in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities for outcomes above 15°C or below 12°C low. Updated model consensus and any revised NIWA guidance ahead of the weekend will be the key near-term drivers of further market movement.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$229終了日
2026/08/15マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Forecast models and seasonal context position 13–14°C as the most probable range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on August 15, 2026.** Wellington’s August climatology features average daily highs near 12–13°C, with typical variability driven by the passage of cold fronts, southerly winds, and occasional warmer northerly flows. NIWA’s June–August 2026 outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with the current market-implied distribution that heavily favors 13°C and 14°C. Short-range guidance from sources such as MetService and international models currently projects highs of 11–14°C for the 15th, reflecting modest uncertainty in frontal timing and wind direction that can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. No significant anomalies or extreme events are indicated in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities for outcomes above 15°C or below 12°C low. Updated model consensus and any revised NIWA guidance ahead of the weekend will be the key near-term drivers of further market movement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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