Current short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF place Istanbul’s maximum temperature on August 15 near 25–28 °C, aligning with seasonal climatology of 27–29 °C highs. Stable mid-August atmospheric patterns, moderate northeasterly winds off the Black Sea, and decreasing cloud cover limit stronger diurnal heating and urban heat retention, keeping extremes unlikely. These conditions explain the market-implied probabilities favoring 25–27 °C outcomes above 80 % combined, as traders incorporate model consensus and historical baselines. Final official observations will resolve the market once the daily peak is recorded.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月15日のイスタンブールの最高気温は?
26°C 54%
25°C 30%
27°C 20%
28°C <1%
$13,821 Vol.
$13,821 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
30%
26°C
54%
27°C
20%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 54%
25°C 30%
27°C 20%
28°C <1%
$13,821 Vol.
$13,821 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
30%
26°C
54%
27°C
20%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF place Istanbul’s maximum temperature on August 15 near 25–28 °C, aligning with seasonal climatology of 27–29 °C highs. Stable mid-August atmospheric patterns, moderate northeasterly winds off the Black Sea, and decreasing cloud cover limit stronger diurnal heating and urban heat retention, keeping extremes unlikely. These conditions explain the market-implied probabilities favoring 25–27 °C outcomes above 80 % combined, as traders incorporate model consensus and historical baselines. Final official observations will resolve the market once the daily peak is recorded.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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