Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a peak of 37–38°C in Chongqing on August 16, driven by persistent subtropical high-pressure ridging and regional subsidence that favor daytime warming amid typical mid-August conditions. Long-term climatology shows average highs near 32–34°C, but current model guidance and heatwave persistence—marked by recent red alerts and peaks exceeding 40°C in parts of southwest China—support elevated outcomes, with urban heat-island effects and low wind speeds amplifying surface temperatures. Official observations from the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the market based on the maximum recorded value at the primary station. Short-term forecast updates over the next 24 hours remain the key variable that could shift consensus toward slightly lower or higher thresholds.