Forecast models for mid-August 2026 place Chengdu's daily maximum near 34–37 °C, reflecting the seasonal influence of the western Pacific subtropical high that sustains warm, humid southwesterly flow across the Sichuan Basin. High humidity (often >70 %) and frequent scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms limit radiative heating and cap extreme outliers, while urban heat-island effects and basin topography can add 1–2 °C locally. Historical August averages peak around 30–34 °C with occasional spikes above 35 °C, so current guidance clusters probability in the 33–36 °C range; small shifts in cloud cover, precipitation timing, or model bias on steering flow could readily move the verified high one bin either way before resolution on the 15th.