No hurricanes have formed in the below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, where only Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha have occurred so far, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. The even ~50% market-implied odds across Cristobal through Wilfred (with earlier names like Dolly and Hanna slightly lower) reflect uncertainty over when subsequent systems will develop and reach the 74 mph sustained wind threshold for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA and CSU forecasts cite moderate El Niño conditions and other factors suppressing overall activity, which could delay intensification or shift formation later in the list. NHC model consensus updates and the next tropical weather outlook will be key near-term drivers for trader positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ドリー 49%
エドゥアール 49%
フェイ 49%
ゴンザロ 49%
新規
新規
2026/12/01
クリストバル
48%
ドリー
49%
エドゥアール
49%
フェイ
49%
ゴンザロ
49%
ハンナ
49%
イサイアスですか
49%
ジョセフィン
49%
カイル
49%
リア
49%
マルコ
49%
ナナ
49%
オマー
49%
ポーレット
49%
ルネ
49%
サリー
49%
テディ
49%
ビッキー
50%
ウィルフレッド
47%
その他
49%
ドリー 49%
エドゥアール 49%
フェイ 49%
ゴンザロ 49%
新規
新規
2026/12/01
クリストバル
$26 Vol.
48%
ドリー
$26 Vol.
49%
エドゥアール
$26 Vol.
49%
フェイ
$26 Vol.
49%
ゴンザロ
$26 Vol.
49%
ハンナ
$26 Vol.
49%
イサイアスですか
$25 Vol.
49%
ジョセフィン
$25 Vol.
49%
カイル
$25 Vol.
49%
リア
$25 Vol.
49%
マルコ
$25 Vol.
49%
ナナ
$25 Vol.
49%
オマー
$24 Vol.
49%
ポーレット
$24 Vol.
49%
ルネ
$24 Vol.
49%
サリー
$24 Vol.
49%
テディ
$24 Vol.
49%
ビッキー
$25 Vol.
50%
ウィルフレッド
$23 Vol.
47%
その他
$23 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. No hurricanes have formed in the below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, where only Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha have occurred so far, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. The even ~50% market-implied odds across Cristobal through Wilfred (with earlier names like Dolly and Hanna slightly lower) reflect uncertainty over when subsequent systems will develop and reach the 74 mph sustained wind threshold for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA and CSU forecasts cite moderate El Niño conditions and other factors suppressing overall activity, which could delay intensification or shift formation later in the list. NHC model consensus updates and the next tropical weather outlook will be key near-term drivers for trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
音量
$497終了日
2026/12/02マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. No hurricanes have formed in the below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, where only Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha have occurred so far, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. The even ~50% market-implied odds across Cristobal through Wilfred (with earlier names like Dolly and Hanna slightly lower) reflect uncertainty over when subsequent systems will develop and reach the 74 mph sustained wind threshold for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA and CSU forecasts cite moderate El Niño conditions and other factors suppressing overall activity, which could delay intensification or shift formation later in the list. NHC model consensus updates and the next tropical weather outlook will be key near-term drivers for trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
音量
$497終了日
2026/12/02マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...No hurricanes have formed in the below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, where only Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha have occurred so far, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. The even ~50% market-implied odds across Cristobal through Wilfred (with earlier names like Dolly and Hanna slightly lower) reflect uncertainty over when subsequent systems will develop and reach the 74 mph sustained wind threshold for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA and CSU forecasts cite moderate El Niño conditions and other factors suppressing overall activity, which could delay intensification or shift formation later in the list. NHC model consensus updates and the next tropical weather outlook will be key near-term drivers for trader positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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