Strong El Niño conditions continue to suppress 2026 Atlantic activity through elevated vertical wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier mid-level air, producing the quietest start to a season in over a decade. As of mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed with zero hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at roughly 3% of normal. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability to a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, while Colorado State University projects only one. These conditions sharply reduce the likelihood of any Category 4 landfall on the U.S. coastline before 2027, supporting the market-implied 83.5% odds for “No.” Remaining peak-season forecasts and early-September model runs will provide the next key updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
16% 確率
$340,152 Vol.
$340,152 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
16% 確率
$340,152 Vol.
$340,152 Vol.
2026/12/30
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions continue to suppress 2026 Atlantic activity through elevated vertical wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier mid-level air, producing the quietest start to a season in over a decade. As of mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed with zero hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at roughly 3% of normal. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability to a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, while Colorado State University projects only one. These conditions sharply reduce the likelihood of any Category 4 landfall on the U.S. coastline before 2027, supporting the market-implied 83.5% odds for “No.” Remaining peak-season forecasts and early-September model runs will provide the next key updates.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
マーケット開始日： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
音量
$340,152終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions continue to suppress 2026 Atlantic activity through elevated vertical wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier mid-level air, producing the quietest start to a season in over a decade. As of mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed with zero hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at roughly 3% of normal. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability to a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, while Colorado State University projects only one. These conditions sharply reduce the likelihood of any Category 4 landfall on the U.S. coastline before 2027, supporting the market-implied 83.5% odds for “No.” Remaining peak-season forecasts and early-September model runs will provide the next key updates.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
音量
$340,152終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions continue to suppress 2026 Atlantic activity through elevated vertical wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier mid-level air, producing the quietest start to a season in over a decade. As of mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed with zero hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at roughly 3% of normal. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability to a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, while Colorado State University projects only one. These conditions sharply reduce the likelihood of any Category 4 landfall on the U.S. coastline before 2027, supporting the market-implied 83.5% odds for “No.” Remaining peak-season forecasts and early-September model runs will provide the next key updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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