Below-normal conditions in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season strongly support the 88.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August update forecasts just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season, with a 75% chance of below-normal activity driven by El Niño influences that suppress formation and intensification. As of mid-August, only three tropical storms have formed and zero hurricanes have developed. Category 5 landfalls remain exceptionally rare, with just five recorded in the U.S. since 1851. Forecasters highlight well-below-average major-hurricane landfall probabilities along the continental coastline through November, though late-season model runs could still shift if steering patterns or rapid intensification occur.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
12% 確率
$139,401 Vol.
$139,401 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
12% 確率
$139,401 Vol.
$139,401 Vol.
2026/12/31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal conditions in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season strongly support the 88.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August update forecasts just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season, with a 75% chance of below-normal activity driven by El Niño influences that suppress formation and intensification. As of mid-August, only three tropical storms have formed and zero hurricanes have developed. Category 5 landfalls remain exceptionally rare, with just five recorded in the U.S. since 1851. Forecasters highlight well-below-average major-hurricane landfall probabilities along the continental coastline through November, though late-season model runs could still shift if steering patterns or rapid intensification occur.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
音量
$139,401終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal conditions in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season strongly support the 88.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August update forecasts just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season, with a 75% chance of below-normal activity driven by El Niño influences that suppress formation and intensification. As of mid-August, only three tropical storms have formed and zero hurricanes have developed. Category 5 landfalls remain exceptionally rare, with just five recorded in the U.S. since 1851. Forecasters highlight well-below-average major-hurricane landfall probabilities along the continental coastline through November, though late-season model runs could still shift if steering patterns or rapid intensification occur.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
音量
$139,401終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Below-normal conditions in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season strongly support the 88.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August update forecasts just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season, with a 75% chance of below-normal activity driven by El Niño influences that suppress formation and intensification. As of mid-August, only three tropical storms have formed and zero hurricanes have developed. Category 5 landfalls remain exceptionally rare, with just five recorded in the U.S. since 1851. Forecasters highlight well-below-average major-hurricane landfall probabilities along the continental coastline through November, though late-season model runs could still shift if steering patterns or rapid intensification occur.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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