**No at 79.5% reflects the absence of any qualifying bolide through mid-October 2026, combined with historical base rates and exhaustive monitoring.** NASA’s CNEOS Fireball repository and ESA tracking show no natural meteoroid airbursts reaching the 5 kt TNT threshold this year, while catalogued near-Earth objects on Sentry and Scout lists carry no impact trajectories capable of delivering that energy. Small, undetected objects (typically a few meters across) produce such events only irregularly—roughly once every 1–3 years on average per multi-decade infrasound and satellite records—making the probability of one occurring in the final 2.5 months low. Ongoing close-approach data continue to confirm only safe flybys, reinforcing trader consensus around the current odds without any recent model shifts or detections altering the outlook.