The market-implied odds for a 5-kiloton or greater bolide in 2026 rest on the low annual frequency of such atmospheric impacts, which NASA CNEOS fireball records show occur roughly once every one to two years on average. No qualifying event has registered so far this year despite an unusual surge in large fireballs during the first quarter, including a March 17 daytime bolide over Ohio that released only 0.25 kt. Ongoing observations from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global infrasound networks confirm no known near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt threat, with small undetected asteroids remaining the only realistic source. Traders are therefore weighting the remaining seven months against historical patterns and the absence of any recent energy spikes above the threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The market-implied odds for a 5-kiloton or greater bolide in 2026 rest on the low annual frequency of such atmospheric impacts, which NASA CNEOS fireball records show occur roughly once every one to two years on average. No qualifying event has registered so far this year despite an unusual surge in large fireballs during the first quarter, including a March 17 daytime bolide over Ohio that released only 0.25 kt. Ongoing observations from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global infrasound networks confirm no known near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt threat, with small undetected asteroids remaining the only realistic source. Traders are therefore weighting the remaining seven months against historical patterns and the absence of any recent energy spikes above the threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
音量
$300,653終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The market-implied odds for a 5-kiloton or greater bolide in 2026 rest on the low annual frequency of such atmospheric impacts, which NASA CNEOS fireball records show occur roughly once every one to two years on average. No qualifying event has registered so far this year despite an unusual surge in large fireballs during the first quarter, including a March 17 daytime bolide over Ohio that released only 0.25 kt. Ongoing observations from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global infrasound networks confirm no known near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt threat, with small undetected asteroids remaining the only realistic source. Traders are therefore weighting the remaining seven months against historical patterns and the absence of any recent energy spikes above the threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$300,653終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied odds for a 5-kiloton or greater bolide in 2026 rest on the low annual frequency of such atmospheric impacts, which NASA CNEOS fireball records show occur roughly once every one to two years on average. No qualifying event has registered so far this year despite an unusual surge in large fireballs during the first quarter, including a March 17 daytime bolide over Ohio that released only 0.25 kt. Ongoing observations from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global infrasound networks confirm no known near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt threat, with small undetected asteroids remaining the only realistic source. Traders are therefore weighting the remaining seven months against historical patterns and the absence of any recent energy spikes above the threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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