Prolonged drought and an extended summer heatwave have driven the Danube to record low water levels across multiple gauges in August 2026, with Budapest readings hitting historic lows and disrupting shipping, hydropower, and irrigation. This situation stems from minimal recent precipitation and high temperatures across Central and Eastern Europe, keeping levels well below seasonal norms. Trader consensus shows closely matched probabilities across early-to-mid September and October windows because forecasts remain uncertain on the timing and volume of autumn rainfall needed for recovery. Seasonal weather patterns, upstream snowmelt absence, and any late-August precipitation shifts could separate outcomes, while sustained dry conditions support later resolution or non-return by November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月1日～14日 20%
2026年11月1日までに戻らない 9%
2026年9月1日より前 7%
2026年9月15日～30日 0
新規
新規
2026/09/01
2026年9月1日より前
7%
2026年9月1日～14日
20%
2026年9月15日～30日
37%
2026年10月1日～31日
42%
2026年11月1日までに戻らない
9%
2026年9月1日～14日 20%
2026年11月1日までに戻らない 9%
2026年9月1日より前 7%
2026年9月15日～30日 0
新規
新規
2026/09/01
2026年9月1日より前
$192 Vol.
7%
2026年9月1日～14日
$119 Vol.
20%
2026年9月15日～30日
$434 Vol.
37%
2026年10月1日～31日
$293 Vol.
42%
2026年11月1日までに戻らない
$114 Vol.
9%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Prolonged drought and an extended summer heatwave have driven the Danube to record low water levels across multiple gauges in August 2026, with Budapest readings hitting historic lows and disrupting shipping, hydropower, and irrigation. This situation stems from minimal recent precipitation and high temperatures across Central and Eastern Europe, keeping levels well below seasonal norms. Trader consensus shows closely matched probabilities across early-to-mid September and October windows because forecasts remain uncertain on the timing and volume of autumn rainfall needed for recovery. Seasonal weather patterns, upstream snowmelt absence, and any late-August precipitation shifts could separate outcomes, while sustained dry conditions support later resolution or non-return by November.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ET
音量
$1,153終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETThis market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Prolonged drought and an extended summer heatwave have driven the Danube to record low water levels across multiple gauges in August 2026, with Budapest readings hitting historic lows and disrupting shipping, hydropower, and irrigation. This situation stems from minimal recent precipitation and high temperatures across Central and Eastern Europe, keeping levels well below seasonal norms. Trader consensus shows closely matched probabilities across early-to-mid September and October windows because forecasts remain uncertain on the timing and volume of autumn rainfall needed for recovery. Seasonal weather patterns, upstream snowmelt absence, and any late-August precipitation shifts could separate outcomes, while sustained dry conditions support later resolution or non-return by November.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,153終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETProlonged drought and an extended summer heatwave have driven the Danube to record low water levels across multiple gauges in August 2026, with Budapest readings hitting historic lows and disrupting shipping, hydropower, and irrigation. This situation stems from minimal recent precipitation and high temperatures across Central and Eastern Europe, keeping levels well below seasonal norms. Trader consensus shows closely matched probabilities across early-to-mid September and October windows because forecasts remain uncertain on the timing and volume of autumn rainfall needed for recovery. Seasonal weather patterns, upstream snowmelt absence, and any late-August precipitation shifts could separate outcomes, while sustained dry conditions support later resolution or non-return by November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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