NASA and ESA monitoring systems, including Sentry and the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, report no tracked near-Earth asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of delivering 1 megaton or greater atmospheric energy in 2026. Ongoing optical surveys detect only small objects—typically under 50 meters—that produce far lower yields, consistent with the historical rarity of megaton-scale airbursts (roughly once every few centuries). With the year more than three-quarters complete and no qualifying bolide recorded in fireball databases, trader consensus at 98.5% for “No” reflects this absence of credible impactors. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from the slim possibility of an undetected long-period comet or very late discovery of a larger object, though such events remain statistically improbable given current survey coverage.