Current trader consensus for no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 stems from ongoing NASA and ESA surveys confirming no near-Earth objects of sufficient size—roughly 50 meters or larger—are on collision trajectories this year. These efforts, including the Catalina Sky Survey and Pan-STARRS, maintain comprehensive coverage for objects capable of releasing energy equivalent to one million tons of TNT, with no detections meeting impact criteria. Historical data from the past century show such events occur globally only once every few thousand years on average. While an undetected small asteroid remains theoretically possible, current orbital catalogs and rapid follow-up observations make any surprise impact highly improbable before year-end.