NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring systems report no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons TNT equivalent energy through the end of 2026. Sentry and Scout analyses confirm zero significant impact probabilities for objects in this size range, aligning with the historical rarity of such events—roughly 20-meter bodies produce this yield but are typically identified well in advance by surveys like ATLAS and Pan-STARRS. With over seven months elapsed without detection or atmospheric entry meeting resolution criteria, trader consensus for “No” at 96.5% reflects this extensive observational coverage. The sole realistic scenario altering the outcome would involve a previously undetected small asteroid discovered on an immediate path before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring systems report no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons TNT equivalent energy through the end of 2026. Sentry and Scout analyses confirm zero significant impact probabilities for objects in this size range, aligning with the historical rarity of such events—roughly 20-meter bodies produce this yield but are typically identified well in advance by surveys like ATLAS and Pan-STARRS. With over seven months elapsed without detection or atmospheric entry meeting resolution criteria, trader consensus for “No” at 96.5% reflects this extensive observational coverage. The sole realistic scenario altering the outcome would involve a previously undetected small asteroid discovered on an immediate path before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
音量
$8,865終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring systems report no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons TNT equivalent energy through the end of 2026. Sentry and Scout analyses confirm zero significant impact probabilities for objects in this size range, aligning with the historical rarity of such events—roughly 20-meter bodies produce this yield but are typically identified well in advance by surveys like ATLAS and Pan-STARRS. With over seven months elapsed without detection or atmospheric entry meeting resolution criteria, trader consensus for “No” at 96.5% reflects this extensive observational coverage. The sole realistic scenario altering the outcome would involve a previously undetected small asteroid discovered on an immediate path before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$8,865終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring systems report no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons TNT equivalent energy through the end of 2026. Sentry and Scout analyses confirm zero significant impact probabilities for objects in this size range, aligning with the historical rarity of such events—roughly 20-meter bodies produce this yield but are typically identified well in advance by surveys like ATLAS and Pan-STARRS. With over seven months elapsed without detection or atmospheric entry meeting resolution criteria, trader consensus for “No” at 96.5% reflects this extensive observational coverage. The sole realistic scenario altering the outcome would involve a previously undetected small asteroid discovered on an immediate path before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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