NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, currently lists no potential Earth impacts in 2026 from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs), driving the market-implied 93.6% probability for "No" on a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike. Recent safe flybys of small asteroids like house-sized 2026 GA2 in April and car-sized 2026 FM3 in March underscore effective monitoring by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS surveys, with no trajectory refinements indicating threats. Historical infrasound data from USGS and CTBTO sensors show bolides of this energy (roughly 10-15 meter meteoroids) occur about once every 2-5 years, but none detected in 2026 so far. Continued NEO discoveries and Vera Rubin Observatory data releases could update catalogs, though a challenging scenario remains an undetected small bolide airbursting like Chelyabinsk (440 kt, 2013).
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, currently lists no potential Earth impacts in 2026 from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs), driving the market-implied 93.6% probability for "No" on a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike. Recent safe flybys of small asteroids like house-sized 2026 GA2 in April and car-sized 2026 FM3 in March underscore effective monitoring by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS surveys, with no trajectory refinements indicating threats. Historical infrasound data from USGS and CTBTO sensors show bolides of this energy (roughly 10-15 meter meteoroids) occur about once every 2-5 years, but none detected in 2026 so far. Continued NEO discoveries and Vera Rubin Observatory data releases could update catalogs, though a challenging scenario remains an undetected small bolide airbursting like Chelyabinsk (440 kt, 2013).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
音量
$7,235終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, currently lists no potential Earth impacts in 2026 from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs), driving the market-implied 93.6% probability for "No" on a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike. Recent safe flybys of small asteroids like house-sized 2026 GA2 in April and car-sized 2026 FM3 in March underscore effective monitoring by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS surveys, with no trajectory refinements indicating threats. Historical infrasound data from USGS and CTBTO sensors show bolides of this energy (roughly 10-15 meter meteoroids) occur about once every 2-5 years, but none detected in 2026 so far. Continued NEO discoveries and Vera Rubin Observatory data releases could update catalogs, though a challenging scenario remains an undetected small bolide airbursting like Chelyabinsk (440 kt, 2013).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$7,235終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, currently lists no potential Earth impacts in 2026 from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs), driving the market-implied 93.6% probability for "No" on a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike. Recent safe flybys of small asteroids like house-sized 2026 GA2 in April and car-sized 2026 FM3 in March underscore effective monitoring by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS surveys, with no trajectory refinements indicating threats. Historical infrasound data from USGS and CTBTO sensors show bolides of this energy (roughly 10-15 meter meteoroids) occur about once every 2-5 years, but none detected in 2026 so far. Continued NEO discoveries and Vera Rubin Observatory data releases could update catalogs, though a challenging scenario remains an undetected small bolide airbursting like Chelyabinsk (440 kt, 2013).
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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