NASA's Artemis program has shifted the first crewed lunar landing to 2028 via Artemis IV after repurposing Artemis III as a 2027 low Earth orbit demonstration. Artemis II completed its successful crewed Orion flyby in April 2026 without any surface operations. The SpaceX Starship human landing system remains unready, with in-orbit refueling unproven and limited progress reported by oversight bodies. No other government or commercial program has demonstrated the necessary hardware, timelines, or regulatory approvals for a 2026 landing. With only months remaining in the year, these development gaps and schedule realities underpin the 99.2% market-implied odds against. Unexpected breakthroughs in private lander testing or international coordination could theoretically intervene but face steep technical and logistical barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$1,967,148 Vol.
$1,967,148 Vol.
はい
$1,967,148 Vol.
$1,967,148 Vol.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Artemis program has shifted the first crewed lunar landing to 2028 via Artemis IV after repurposing Artemis III as a 2027 low Earth orbit demonstration. Artemis II completed its successful crewed Orion flyby in April 2026 without any surface operations. The SpaceX Starship human landing system remains unready, with in-orbit refueling unproven and limited progress reported by oversight bodies. No other government or commercial program has demonstrated the necessary hardware, timelines, or regulatory approvals for a 2026 landing. With only months remaining in the year, these development gaps and schedule realities underpin the 99.2% market-implied odds against. Unexpected breakthroughs in private lander testing or international coordination could theoretically intervene but face steep technical and logistical barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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