Early 2026 tornado activity has run well ahead of climatological norms, with preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts exceeding 550 confirmed tornadoes by mid-May across multiple Midwest and Southeast outbreaks. This pace, driven by persistent favorable atmospheric conditions including strong wind shear and instability, positions the annual total comfortably above the long-term U.S. average of roughly 1,200–1,300 events. May’s typical contribution of around 265 tornadoes, combined with Illinois and Missouri already surpassing seasonal benchmarks, reinforces trader consensus for outcomes at or above 1,250. Continued monitoring of June–December patterns and any late-season shifts in the jet stream will determine whether the current trajectory holds through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1250以上 72%
1200〜1249 37.5%
1150〜1199 8.8%
950未満 4.3%
$71,989 Vol.
$71,989 Vol.
2027/01/10
950未満
4%
950〜999
4%
1000〜1049
1%
1050〜1099
4%
1100〜1149
4%
1150〜1199
9%
1200〜1249
38%
1250以上
78%
1250以上 72%
1200〜1249 37.5%
1150〜1199 8.8%
950未満 4.3%
$71,989 Vol.
$71,989 Vol.
2027/01/10
950未満
$22,427 Vol.
4%
950〜999
$2,966 Vol.
4%
1000〜1049
$2,424 Vol.
1%
1050〜1099
$7,841 Vol.
4%
1100〜1149
$2,041 Vol.
4%
1150〜1199
$2,452 Vol.
9%
1200〜1249
$15,173 Vol.
38%
1250以上
$16,666 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early 2026 tornado activity has run well ahead of climatological norms, with preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts exceeding 550 confirmed tornadoes by mid-May across multiple Midwest and Southeast outbreaks. This pace, driven by persistent favorable atmospheric conditions including strong wind shear and instability, positions the annual total comfortably above the long-term U.S. average of roughly 1,200–1,300 events. May’s typical contribution of around 265 tornadoes, combined with Illinois and Missouri already surpassing seasonal benchmarks, reinforces trader consensus for outcomes at or above 1,250. Continued monitoring of June–December patterns and any late-season shifts in the jet stream will determine whether the current trajectory holds through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
音量
$71,989終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early 2026 tornado activity has run well ahead of climatological norms, with preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts exceeding 550 confirmed tornadoes by mid-May across multiple Midwest and Southeast outbreaks. This pace, driven by persistent favorable atmospheric conditions including strong wind shear and instability, positions the annual total comfortably above the long-term U.S. average of roughly 1,200–1,300 events. May’s typical contribution of around 265 tornadoes, combined with Illinois and Missouri already surpassing seasonal benchmarks, reinforces trader consensus for outcomes at or above 1,250. Continued monitoring of June–December patterns and any late-season shifts in the jet stream will determine whether the current trajectory holds through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
音量
$71,989終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early 2026 tornado activity has run well ahead of climatological norms, with preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts exceeding 550 confirmed tornadoes by mid-May across multiple Midwest and Southeast outbreaks. This pace, driven by persistent favorable atmospheric conditions including strong wind shear and instability, positions the annual total comfortably above the long-term U.S. average of roughly 1,200–1,300 events. May’s typical contribution of around 265 tornadoes, combined with Illinois and Missouri already surpassing seasonal benchmarks, reinforces trader consensus for outcomes at or above 1,250. Continued monitoring of June–December patterns and any late-season shifts in the jet stream will determine whether the current trajectory holds through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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