With preliminary U.S. tornado reports already exceeding 1,100 by mid-August 2026 according to NOAA Storm Prediction Center data, trader consensus strongly favors a final annual total of 1,250 or higher. An unusually active early season, driven by persistent Midwest jet stream patterns and record warmth in states like Illinois, has produced above-average counts, particularly from March through June. ENSO-neutral conditions and Gulf moisture have supported convective outbreaks, aligning with historical analogs for elevated activity. Remaining summer and fall months typically add 150–300 confirmed tornadoes, making sub-1,200 outcomes unlikely absent a sharp late-year decline. Official NCEI verification in early 2027 will resolve the market based on confirmed counts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1250以上 86%
1150〜1199 8.0%
1200〜1249 7.6%
950未満 3.7%
$81,752 Vol.
$81,752 Vol.
2027/01/10
950未満
4%
950〜999
<1%
1000〜1049
<1%
1050〜1099
<1%
1100〜1149
4%
1150〜1199
8%
1200〜1249
8%
1250以上
86%
1250以上 86%
1150〜1199 8.0%
1200〜1249 7.6%
950未満 3.7%
$81,752 Vol.
$81,752 Vol.
2027/01/10
950未満
$23,720 Vol.
4%
950〜999
$3,618 Vol.
<1%
1000〜1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050〜1099
$9,172 Vol.
<1%
1100〜1149
$3,248 Vol.
4%
1150〜1199
$4,082 Vol.
8%
1200〜1249
$15,917 Vol.
8%
1250以上
$18,543 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With preliminary U.S. tornado reports already exceeding 1,100 by mid-August 2026 according to NOAA Storm Prediction Center data, trader consensus strongly favors a final annual total of 1,250 or higher. An unusually active early season, driven by persistent Midwest jet stream patterns and record warmth in states like Illinois, has produced above-average counts, particularly from March through June. ENSO-neutral conditions and Gulf moisture have supported convective outbreaks, aligning with historical analogs for elevated activity. Remaining summer and fall months typically add 150–300 confirmed tornadoes, making sub-1,200 outcomes unlikely absent a sharp late-year decline. Official NCEI verification in early 2027 will resolve the market based on confirmed counts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
音量
$81,752終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With preliminary U.S. tornado reports already exceeding 1,100 by mid-August 2026 according to NOAA Storm Prediction Center data, trader consensus strongly favors a final annual total of 1,250 or higher. An unusually active early season, driven by persistent Midwest jet stream patterns and record warmth in states like Illinois, has produced above-average counts, particularly from March through June. ENSO-neutral conditions and Gulf moisture have supported convective outbreaks, aligning with historical analogs for elevated activity. Remaining summer and fall months typically add 150–300 confirmed tornadoes, making sub-1,200 outcomes unlikely absent a sharp late-year decline. Official NCEI verification in early 2027 will resolve the market based on confirmed counts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
音量
$81,752終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With preliminary U.S. tornado reports already exceeding 1,100 by mid-August 2026 according to NOAA Storm Prediction Center data, trader consensus strongly favors a final annual total of 1,250 or higher. An unusually active early season, driven by persistent Midwest jet stream patterns and record warmth in states like Illinois, has produced above-average counts, particularly from March through June. ENSO-neutral conditions and Gulf moisture have supported convective outbreaks, aligning with historical analogs for elevated activity. Remaining summer and fall months typically add 150–300 confirmed tornadoes, making sub-1,200 outcomes unlikely absent a sharp late-year decline. Official NCEI verification in early 2027 will resolve the market based on confirmed counts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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