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icon for 何も起こらない： 2026年
地政学·パーレイ

何も起こらない： 2026年

icon for 何も起こらない： 2026年
地政学·パーレイ

何も起こらない： 2026年

3月 31

5月 31

12月 31

3月 31

5月 31

12月 31

はい

67% 確率
Polymarket

$557,001 Vol.

はい

67% 確率
Polymarket

$557,001 Vol.

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 67% implied probability for "Yes"—no major disruptions through December 31, 2026—after five months without triggers like President Trump's removal, China invading Taiwan, Russia attacking a NATO country, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping ouster, Republican Senate supermajority post-midterms, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Trump acquiring Greenland, Jeffrey Epstein appearing alive, or catastrophic natural disasters such as a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 9.0+ earthquake, or 250kt+ meteor strike. Recent de-escalations bolster this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce eased Russia-NATO invasion fears, while U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets fell short of full invasion criteria. Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000, Trump remains in office amid stable domestic politics, and no regime threats have materialized. Risks persist from the May 14 Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where historical incumbent losses could avert a GOP trifecta with supermajority.

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
音量
$557,001
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 67% implied probability for "Yes"—no major disruptions through December 31, 2026—after five months without triggers like President Trump's removal, China invading Taiwan, Russia attacking a NATO country, U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping ouster, Republican Senate supermajority post-midterms, Bitcoin surging above $1 million or crashing below $10,000, Trump acquiring Greenland, Jeffrey Epstein appearing alive, or catastrophic natural disasters such as a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 9.0+ earthquake, or 250kt+ meteor strike. Recent de-escalations bolster this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce eased Russia-NATO invasion fears, while U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets fell short of full invasion criteria. Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000, Trump remains in office amid stable domestic politics, and no regime threats have materialized. Risks persist from the May 14 Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where historical incumbent losses could avert a GOP trifecta with supermajority.

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
音量
$557,001
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「何も起こらない： 2026年」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「何も起こらない：2026」で67%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、67¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に67%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「何も起こらない： 2026年」は$557Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 6, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「何も起こらない： 2026年」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「何も起こらない： 2026年」の現在のフロントランナーは「何も起こらない：2026」で67%であり、市場がこの結果に67%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「何も起こらない： 2026年」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。