Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only low-magnitude events (typically below M3) near Los Angeles through mid-August 2026, with no M5+ activity in the central basin this year. Trader consensus for "No" at 93.2% stems primarily from the narrow remaining window through December 2026 combined with the region's background rate: long-term UCERF3 models assign roughly 60% probability of an M6.7+ quake over 30 years, implying annualized odds well below 4% for an M6.5+ event within typical LA radii. While foreshock sequences or accelerated slip on nearby faults such as the San Andreas or Puente Hills could elevate short-term risk, the absence of such indicators in current catalogs keeps the market-implied odds firmly aligned with historical recurrence patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2027年以前にロサンゼルスでマグニチュード6.5以上の地震が発生しましたか？
2027年以前にロサンゼルスでマグニチュード6.5以上の地震が発生しましたか？
7% 確率
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
2026/12/31
7% 確率
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only low-magnitude events (typically below M3) near Los Angeles through mid-August 2026, with no M5+ activity in the central basin this year. Trader consensus for "No" at 93.2% stems primarily from the narrow remaining window through December 2026 combined with the region's background rate: long-term UCERF3 models assign roughly 60% probability of an M6.7+ quake over 30 years, implying annualized odds well below 4% for an M6.5+ event within typical LA radii. While foreshock sequences or accelerated slip on nearby faults such as the San Andreas or Puente Hills could elevate short-term risk, the absence of such indicators in current catalogs keeps the market-implied odds firmly aligned with historical recurrence patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
音量
$16,533終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only low-magnitude events (typically below M3) near Los Angeles through mid-August 2026, with no M5+ activity in the central basin this year. Trader consensus for "No" at 93.2% stems primarily from the narrow remaining window through December 2026 combined with the region's background rate: long-term UCERF3 models assign roughly 60% probability of an M6.7+ quake over 30 years, implying annualized odds well below 4% for an M6.5+ event within typical LA radii. While foreshock sequences or accelerated slip on nearby faults such as the San Andreas or Puente Hills could elevate short-term risk, the absence of such indicators in current catalogs keeps the market-implied odds firmly aligned with historical recurrence patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
音量
$16,533終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only low-magnitude events (typically below M3) near Los Angeles through mid-August 2026, with no M5+ activity in the central basin this year. Trader consensus for "No" at 93.2% stems primarily from the narrow remaining window through December 2026 combined with the region's background rate: long-term UCERF3 models assign roughly 60% probability of an M6.7+ quake over 30 years, implying annualized odds well below 4% for an M6.5+ event within typical LA radii. While foreshock sequences or accelerated slip on nearby faults such as the San Andreas or Puente Hills could elevate short-term risk, the absence of such indicators in current catalogs keeps the market-implied odds firmly aligned with historical recurrence patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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