The strong trader consensus favoring "No" at 91.1% stems from USGS monitoring data showing only minor recent seismic activity near Los Angeles, including scattered events below magnitude 4.0 in 2025–2026, combined with the brief remaining window until 2027. Historical recurrence intervals for magnitude 6.5+ quakes on local faults such as the Newport-Inglewood and southern San Andreas indicate low annual odds, consistent with 30-year regional probabilities around 60% for magnitude 6.7. While accumulating tectonic stress noted in paleoseismic studies raises long-term risk, short-term forecasting remains highly uncertain. A sudden rupture on a nearby fault could still produce the required event before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
$13,382 Vol.
$13,382 Vol.
2026/12/31
$13,382 Vol.
$13,382 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The strong trader consensus favoring "No" at 91.1% stems from USGS monitoring data showing only minor recent seismic activity near Los Angeles, including scattered events below magnitude 4.0 in 2025–2026, combined with the brief remaining window until 2027. Historical recurrence intervals for magnitude 6.5+ quakes on local faults such as the Newport-Inglewood and southern San Andreas indicate low annual odds, consistent with 30-year regional probabilities around 60% for magnitude 6.7. While accumulating tectonic stress noted in paleoseismic studies raises long-term risk, short-term forecasting remains highly uncertain. A sudden rupture on a nearby fault could still produce the required event before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
音量
$13,382終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The strong trader consensus favoring "No" at 91.1% stems from USGS monitoring data showing only minor recent seismic activity near Los Angeles, including scattered events below magnitude 4.0 in 2025–2026, combined with the brief remaining window until 2027. Historical recurrence intervals for magnitude 6.5+ quakes on local faults such as the Newport-Inglewood and southern San Andreas indicate low annual odds, consistent with 30-year regional probabilities around 60% for magnitude 6.7. While accumulating tectonic stress noted in paleoseismic studies raises long-term risk, short-term forecasting remains highly uncertain. A sudden rupture on a nearby fault could still produce the required event before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
音量
$13,382終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The strong trader consensus favoring "No" at 91.1% stems from USGS monitoring data showing only minor recent seismic activity near Los Angeles, including scattered events below magnitude 4.0 in 2025–2026, combined with the brief remaining window until 2027. Historical recurrence intervals for magnitude 6.5+ quakes on local faults such as the Newport-Inglewood and southern San Andreas indicate low annual odds, consistent with 30-year regional probabilities around 60% for magnitude 6.7. While accumulating tectonic stress noted in paleoseismic studies raises long-term risk, short-term forecasting remains highly uncertain. A sudden rupture on a nearby fault could still produce the required event before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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