Recent mid-month observational data from Copernicus and NOAA show global temperature anomalies for May 2026 tracking in the 1.10–1.14 °C range above pre-industrial levels, reflecting the post-El Niño transition to neutral ENSO conditions that moderated extremes seen in 2023–2024. This positions May 2026 as likely the second-warmest on record in major datasets, consistent with the 67% market-implied probability, while a stronger late-month surge could still push it to first hottest with the 26.5% odds. Historical baselines and ongoing greenhouse gas forcing keep anomalies well above 1.0 °C, though model consensus and early May station data limit upside risk for a new monthly record.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 27%
3rd hottest 5.1%
4th or lower 1.0%
$104,835 Vol.
$104,835 Vol.
2026/06/10
1st hottest
27%
2nd hottest
67%
3rd hottest
5%
4th or lower
1%
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 27%
3rd hottest 5.1%
4th or lower 1.0%
$104,835 Vol.
$104,835 Vol.
2026/06/10
1st hottest
$11,838 Vol.
27%
2nd hottest
$3,384 Vol.
67%
3rd hottest
$39,537 Vol.
5%
4th or lower
$50,077 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent mid-month observational data from Copernicus and NOAA show global temperature anomalies for May 2026 tracking in the 1.10–1.14 °C range above pre-industrial levels, reflecting the post-El Niño transition to neutral ENSO conditions that moderated extremes seen in 2023–2024. This positions May 2026 as likely the second-warmest on record in major datasets, consistent with the 67% market-implied probability, while a stronger late-month surge could still push it to first hottest with the 26.5% odds. Historical baselines and ongoing greenhouse gas forcing keep anomalies well above 1.0 °C, though model consensus and early May station data limit upside risk for a new monthly record.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
音量
$104,835終了日
2026/06/10マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent mid-month observational data from Copernicus and NOAA show global temperature anomalies for May 2026 tracking in the 1.10–1.14 °C range above pre-industrial levels, reflecting the post-El Niño transition to neutral ENSO conditions that moderated extremes seen in 2023–2024. This positions May 2026 as likely the second-warmest on record in major datasets, consistent with the 67% market-implied probability, while a stronger late-month surge could still push it to first hottest with the 26.5% odds. Historical baselines and ongoing greenhouse gas forcing keep anomalies well above 1.0 °C, though model consensus and early May station data limit upside risk for a new monthly record.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$104,835終了日
2026/06/10マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent mid-month observational data from Copernicus and NOAA show global temperature anomalies for May 2026 tracking in the 1.10–1.14 °C range above pre-industrial levels, reflecting the post-El Niño transition to neutral ENSO conditions that moderated extremes seen in 2023–2024. This positions May 2026 as likely the second-warmest on record in major datasets, consistent with the 67% market-implied probability, while a stronger late-month surge could still push it to first hottest with the 26.5% odds. Historical baselines and ongoing greenhouse gas forcing keep anomalies well above 1.0 °C, though model consensus and early May station data limit upside risk for a new monthly record.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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