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icon for 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

icon for 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

6月 10

6月 10

2nd hottest 67%

1st hottest 27%

3rd hottest 5.1%

4th or lower 1.0%

Polymarket

$104,835 Vol.

2nd hottest 67%

1st hottest 27%

3rd hottest 5.1%

4th or lower 1.0%

Polymarket

$104,835 Vol.

1st hottest

$11,838 Vol.

27%

2nd hottest

$3,384 Vol.

67%

3rd hottest

$39,537 Vol.

5%

4th or lower

$50,077 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Persistent global warming combined with elevated temperatures through early 2026 has positioned May 1–3 near the top of historical daily records, driving the market-implied 67% probability for second-hottest. NOAA and Berkeley Earth data show 2026 on track for the second-warmest year overall, with March and April anomalies already ranking among the highest on record amid a developing El Niño phase that amplifies heat. This background trend, rather than isolated daily extremes, underpins trader consensus while leaving room for first-hottest if recent model runs confirm even stronger anomalies. Official daily global temperature releases from agencies like NOAA will provide the definitive resolution criteria in coming weeks.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.

Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$104,835
終了日
2026/06/10
マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Persistent global warming combined with elevated temperatures through early 2026 has positioned May 1–3 near the top of historical daily records, driving the market-implied 67% probability for second-hottest. NOAA and Berkeley Earth data show 2026 on track for the second-warmest year overall, with March and April anomalies already ranking among the highest on record amid a developing El Niño phase that amplifies heat. This background trend, rather than isolated daily extremes, underpins trader consensus while leaving room for first-hottest if recent model runs confirm even stronger anomalies. Official daily global temperature releases from agencies like NOAA will provide the definitive resolution criteria in coming weeks.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.

Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$104,835
終了日
2026/06/10
マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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よくある質問

「2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2nd hottest」で67%、次いで「1st hottest」が27%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、67¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に67%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?」は$104.8Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Apr 27, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?」の現在のフロントランナーは「2nd hottest」で67%であり、市場がこの結果に67%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「1st hottest」で27%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。