Apple’s market capitalization, currently near $4.5 trillion, faces closely matched trader sentiment for year-end 2026 ranges because its AI initiatives sit at a pivotal inflection. The June WWDC26 reveal of next-generation Apple Intelligence and a Gemini-powered Siri, running on Nvidia hardware with potential paid tiers, highlighted credible progress in large language model integration yet drew criticism for lagging behind rivals and prompting a post-event stock dip. Offsetting factors include robust services revenue growth, ongoing share buybacks, and hardware catalysts such as the iPhone 18 lineup and rumored foldable devices, while risks from regulatory scrutiny, China exposure, and AI monetization timelines create balanced uncertainty. Recent reports of potential AI chip acquisitions add further variables that could shift implied probabilities in either direction before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4.50〜5.00兆ドル 35%
4.00兆～4.50兆ドル 31%
5.00〜5.50兆ドル 26%
3.50〜4.00兆ドル 25%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
3.50兆ドル未満
18%
3.50〜4.00兆ドル
25%
4.00兆～4.50兆ドル
29%
4.50〜5.00兆ドル
32%
5.00〜5.50兆ドル
26%
5.50〜6.00兆ドル
18%
6.00兆ドル以上
12%
4.50〜5.00兆ドル 35%
4.00兆～4.50兆ドル 31%
5.00〜5.50兆ドル 26%
3.50〜4.00兆ドル 25%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
3.50兆ドル未満
$33 Vol.
18%
3.50〜4.00兆ドル
$0 Vol.
25%
4.00兆～4.50兆ドル
$42 Vol.
29%
4.50〜5.00兆ドル
$55 Vol.
32%
5.00〜5.50兆ドル
$0 Vol.
26%
5.50〜6.00兆ドル
$0 Vol.
18%
6.00兆ドル以上
$26 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s market capitalization, currently near $4.5 trillion, faces closely matched trader sentiment for year-end 2026 ranges because its AI initiatives sit at a pivotal inflection. The June WWDC26 reveal of next-generation Apple Intelligence and a Gemini-powered Siri, running on Nvidia hardware with potential paid tiers, highlighted credible progress in large language model integration yet drew criticism for lagging behind rivals and prompting a post-event stock dip. Offsetting factors include robust services revenue growth, ongoing share buybacks, and hardware catalysts such as the iPhone 18 lineup and rumored foldable devices, while risks from regulatory scrutiny, China exposure, and AI monetization timelines create balanced uncertainty. Recent reports of potential AI chip acquisitions add further variables that could shift implied probabilities in either direction before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
マーケット開始日： Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ET
音量
$155終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s market capitalization, currently near $4.5 trillion, faces closely matched trader sentiment for year-end 2026 ranges because its AI initiatives sit at a pivotal inflection. The June WWDC26 reveal of next-generation Apple Intelligence and a Gemini-powered Siri, running on Nvidia hardware with potential paid tiers, highlighted credible progress in large language model integration yet drew criticism for lagging behind rivals and prompting a post-event stock dip. Offsetting factors include robust services revenue growth, ongoing share buybacks, and hardware catalysts such as the iPhone 18 lineup and rumored foldable devices, while risks from regulatory scrutiny, China exposure, and AI monetization timelines create balanced uncertainty. Recent reports of potential AI chip acquisitions add further variables that could shift implied probabilities in either direction before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
音量
$155終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Apple’s market capitalization, currently near $4.5 trillion, faces closely matched trader sentiment for year-end 2026 ranges because its AI initiatives sit at a pivotal inflection. The June WWDC26 reveal of next-generation Apple Intelligence and a Gemini-powered Siri, running on Nvidia hardware with potential paid tiers, highlighted credible progress in large language model integration yet drew criticism for lagging behind rivals and prompting a post-event stock dip. Offsetting factors include robust services revenue growth, ongoing share buybacks, and hardware catalysts such as the iPhone 18 lineup and rumored foldable devices, while risks from regulatory scrutiny, China exposure, and AI monetization timelines create balanced uncertainty. Recent reports of potential AI chip acquisitions add further variables that could shift implied probabilities in either direction before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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