The 90% cap on deductible gambling losses, enacted as part of the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and effective for tax year 2026, faces low odds of repeal before 2027 because congressional efforts have stalled despite targeted advocacy. Bipartisan bills and letters, including UFC CEO Dana White’s May 2026 appeal to President Trump and measures from senators like Catherine Cortez Masto and Ted Cruz, produced only temporary market movement before momentum faded. With the provision already applying to current returns and competing legislative priorities dominating the remainder of the 2026 session, traders assign just a 16.5% implied probability to reversal by year-end, reflecting the procedural and political barriers to quick action on this narrow tax adjustment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
17% 確率
$71,078 Vol.
$71,078 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
17% 確率
$71,078 Vol.
$71,078 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 90% cap on deductible gambling losses, enacted as part of the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and effective for tax year 2026, faces low odds of repeal before 2027 because congressional efforts have stalled despite targeted advocacy. Bipartisan bills and letters, including UFC CEO Dana White’s May 2026 appeal to President Trump and measures from senators like Catherine Cortez Masto and Ted Cruz, produced only temporary market movement before momentum faded. With the provision already applying to current returns and competing legislative priorities dominating the remainder of the 2026 session, traders assign just a 16.5% implied probability to reversal by year-end, reflecting the procedural and political barriers to quick action on this narrow tax adjustment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
音量
$71,078終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 90% cap on deductible gambling losses, enacted as part of the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and effective for tax year 2026, faces low odds of repeal before 2027 because congressional efforts have stalled despite targeted advocacy. Bipartisan bills and letters, including UFC CEO Dana White’s May 2026 appeal to President Trump and measures from senators like Catherine Cortez Masto and Ted Cruz, produced only temporary market movement before momentum faded. With the provision already applying to current returns and competing legislative priorities dominating the remainder of the 2026 session, traders assign just a 16.5% implied probability to reversal by year-end, reflecting the procedural and political barriers to quick action on this narrow tax adjustment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$71,078終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 90% cap on deductible gambling losses, enacted as part of the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and effective for tax year 2026, faces low odds of repeal before 2027 because congressional efforts have stalled despite targeted advocacy. Bipartisan bills and letters, including UFC CEO Dana White’s May 2026 appeal to President Trump and measures from senators like Catherine Cortez Masto and Ted Cruz, produced only temporary market movement before momentum faded. With the provision already applying to current returns and competing legislative priorities dominating the remainder of the 2026 session, traders assign just a 16.5% implied probability to reversal by year-end, reflecting the procedural and political barriers to quick action on this narrow tax adjustment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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