Recent developments center on the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which permanently extended most 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual rate provisions and related deductions through reconciliation but left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at their current 0/15/20 percent structure plus net investment income tax. In August 2026, Trump administration officials have discussed narrower ideas such as inflation indexing of basis or expanded home-sale exclusions ahead of the November midterms, yet no formal legislative proposal has advanced, and analysts note the compressed timeline makes congressional action improbable before year-end. Any broader rate reduction would require either reconciliation or bipartisan support amid competing priorities, creating substantial procedural and calendar barriers through 2026. Trader consensus at 86 percent for “No” reflects these legislative realities and the absence of confirmed momentum for a general cut before the 2027 deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
17% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
17% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments center on the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which permanently extended most 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual rate provisions and related deductions through reconciliation but left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at their current 0/15/20 percent structure plus net investment income tax. In August 2026, Trump administration officials have discussed narrower ideas such as inflation indexing of basis or expanded home-sale exclusions ahead of the November midterms, yet no formal legislative proposal has advanced, and analysts note the compressed timeline makes congressional action improbable before year-end. Any broader rate reduction would require either reconciliation or bipartisan support amid competing priorities, creating substantial procedural and calendar barriers through 2026. Trader consensus at 86 percent for “No” reflects these legislative realities and the absence of confirmed momentum for a general cut before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
音量
$2,141終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments center on the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which permanently extended most 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual rate provisions and related deductions through reconciliation but left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at their current 0/15/20 percent structure plus net investment income tax. In August 2026, Trump administration officials have discussed narrower ideas such as inflation indexing of basis or expanded home-sale exclusions ahead of the November midterms, yet no formal legislative proposal has advanced, and analysts note the compressed timeline makes congressional action improbable before year-end. Any broader rate reduction would require either reconciliation or bipartisan support amid competing priorities, creating substantial procedural and calendar barriers through 2026. Trader consensus at 86 percent for “No” reflects these legislative realities and the absence of confirmed momentum for a general cut before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$2,141終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments center on the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which permanently extended most 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual rate provisions and related deductions through reconciliation but left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at their current 0/15/20 percent structure plus net investment income tax. In August 2026, Trump administration officials have discussed narrower ideas such as inflation indexing of basis or expanded home-sale exclusions ahead of the November midterms, yet no formal legislative proposal has advanced, and analysts note the compressed timeline makes congressional action improbable before year-end. Any broader rate reduction would require either reconciliation or bipartisan support amid competing priorities, creating substantial procedural and calendar barriers through 2026. Trader consensus at 86 percent for “No” reflects these legislative realities and the absence of confirmed momentum for a general cut before the 2027 deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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