**Grok models currently trail significantly on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a demanding 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing frontier knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, leading Claude variants from Anthropic top public leaderboards at 64–65%, while the strongest reported Grok versions (such as 4.6) sit near 42.9%. xAI has driven incremental gains through iterative releases like Grok 4.3–4.6 and earlier tool-augmented or multi-agent configurations that reached the mid-40s to low-50s in select evaluations, but closed-book leaderboard results lag. With only three-plus months left in 2026, trader sentiment centers on whether xAI’s rapid iteration pace can deliver the substantial capability jumps needed to hit higher thresholds before year-end, amid competition from continued Anthropic and OpenAI advances.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$119,351 Vol.
2026/12/31
45％以上
81%
50%以上
51%
55％以上
31%
60％以上
19%
65%以上
4%
$119,351 Vol.
45％以上
$44,627 Vol.
81%
50%以上
$24,876 Vol.
51%
55％以上
$29,262 Vol.
31%
60％以上
$17,653 Vol.
19%
65%以上
$2,934 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail significantly on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a demanding 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing frontier knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, leading Claude variants from Anthropic top public leaderboards at 64–65%, while the strongest reported Grok versions (such as 4.6) sit near 42.9%. xAI has driven incremental gains through iterative releases like Grok 4.3–4.6 and earlier tool-augmented or multi-agent configurations that reached the mid-40s to low-50s in select evaluations, but closed-book leaderboard results lag. With only three-plus months left in 2026, trader sentiment centers on whether xAI’s rapid iteration pace can deliver the substantial capability jumps needed to hit higher thresholds before year-end, amid competition from continued Anthropic and OpenAI advances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
音量
$119,351終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET結算ソース
https://agi.safe.ai/リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail significantly on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a demanding 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing frontier knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, leading Claude variants from Anthropic top public leaderboards at 64–65%, while the strongest reported Grok versions (such as 4.6) sit near 42.9%. xAI has driven incremental gains through iterative releases like Grok 4.3–4.6 and earlier tool-augmented or multi-agent configurations that reached the mid-40s to low-50s in select evaluations, but closed-book leaderboard results lag. With only three-plus months left in 2026, trader sentiment centers on whether xAI’s rapid iteration pace can deliver the substantial capability jumps needed to hit higher thresholds before year-end, amid competition from continued Anthropic and OpenAI advances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$119,351終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET結算ソース
https://agi.safe.ai/リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Grok models currently trail significantly on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a demanding 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing frontier knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, leading Claude variants from Anthropic top public leaderboards at 64–65%, while the strongest reported Grok versions (such as 4.6) sit near 42.9%. xAI has driven incremental gains through iterative releases like Grok 4.3–4.6 and earlier tool-augmented or multi-agent configurations that reached the mid-40s to low-50s in select evaluations, but closed-book leaderboard results lag. With only three-plus months left in 2026, trader sentiment centers on whether xAI’s rapid iteration pace can deliver the substantial capability jumps needed to hit higher thresholds before year-end, amid competition from continued Anthropic and OpenAI advances.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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