Persistent heat under a building high-pressure dome over Texas supports mid-90s highs for Houston on July 6, consistent with July normals near 94°F at Houston Intercontinental. Recent model guidance and agency outlooks indicate isolated afternoon thunderstorms that could increase cloud cover and reduce peak insolation, favoring the market’s leading 92–95°F bins (collectively over 47% implied probability). High humidity will sustain elevated heat indices near 105°F, but steering patterns and moisture return keep storm timing and coverage uncertain, creating the tight spread across 90–97°F outcomes. Official National Weather Service and NOAA forecast updates over the next 24 hours will refine convective timing and any adjustments to maximum temperatures ahead of market resolution.