**Forecast models from agencies including MetService and international sources indicate a high of 14–16°C in Wellington on September 30 under a strengthening ridge of high pressure from the Tasman Sea, producing mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds.** This setup supports the market’s leading outcomes at 15°C (48.5%) and 16°C (38.5%), consistent with late-spring climatology where September daily maxima average near 14°C but can reach 15–16°C with reduced cloud cover and minimal mixing. Light winds limit orographic cooling typical of Wellington’s exposed topography, while the ridge suppresses significant frontal activity. Updated model runs and official briefings tomorrow morning will refine the precise maximum before resolution.