SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 100 launches by late August 2026 and maintaining roughly three flights per week through September, underpins the 78.1% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Starlink missions dominate the manifest from Vandenberg, while Starship Flight 14’s scheduled orbital attempt on or after September 28 introduces potential additional flights once regulatory and technical hurdles clear. High booster reuse rates, rapid pad turnarounds, and steady demand for constellation replenishment support continued frequency, though Starship integration and any FAA-related pauses could shift the final tally within the leading range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年にSpaceXは何回打ち上げられますか？
2026年にSpaceXは何回打ち上げられますか？
140～159 74.7%
160〜179 5.4%
120〜139 3.5%
200回以上 2.1%
$333,898 Vol.
$333,898 Vol.
2026/12/31
100～119
1%
120〜139
13%
140～159
78%
160〜179
5%
180～199
1%
200回以上
2%
140～159 74.7%
160〜179 5.4%
120〜139 3.5%
200回以上 2.1%
$333,898 Vol.
$333,898 Vol.
2026/12/31
100～119
$3,550 Vol.
1%
120〜139
$5,165 Vol.
13%
140～159
$50,289 Vol.
78%
160〜179
$100,767 Vol.
5%
180～199
$61,243 Vol.
1%
200回以上
$107,069 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 100 launches by late August 2026 and maintaining roughly three flights per week through September, underpins the 78.1% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Starlink missions dominate the manifest from Vandenberg, while Starship Flight 14’s scheduled orbital attempt on or after September 28 introduces potential additional flights once regulatory and technical hurdles clear. High booster reuse rates, rapid pad turnarounds, and steady demand for constellation replenishment support continued frequency, though Starship integration and any FAA-related pauses could shift the final tally within the leading range.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
マーケット開始日： Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
音量
$333,898終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 100 launches by late August 2026 and maintaining roughly three flights per week through September, underpins the 78.1% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Starlink missions dominate the manifest from Vandenberg, while Starship Flight 14’s scheduled orbital attempt on or after September 28 introduces potential additional flights once regulatory and technical hurdles clear. High booster reuse rates, rapid pad turnarounds, and steady demand for constellation replenishment support continued frequency, though Starship integration and any FAA-related pauses could shift the final tally within the leading range.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
音量
$333,898終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 100 launches by late August 2026 and maintaining roughly three flights per week through September, underpins the 78.1% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Starlink missions dominate the manifest from Vandenberg, while Starship Flight 14’s scheduled orbital attempt on or after September 28 introduces potential additional flights once regulatory and technical hurdles clear. High booster reuse rates, rapid pad turnarounds, and steady demand for constellation replenishment support continued frequency, though Starship integration and any FAA-related pauses could shift the final tally within the leading range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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