Recent above-average tropical cyclone formation in the western Pacific, driven by elevated sea surface temperatures linked to El Niño conditions, underpins the tight clustering of Polymarket implied probabilities around 6–8+ China landfalls for 2026. China's National Climate Center outlook anticipated 7–9 landfalls—above the climatological norm—with stronger-than-average intensity and multiple systems already striking southern and eastern provinces, including Bavi and Noul in July. Official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration and JTWC shows 14–15 named storms by early August, positioning the season for peak August–September activity when steering patterns and landfall windows remain highly variable. Model consensus highlights potential additional impacts from systems like Dolphin, though track uncertainty and possible recurvature could alter totals before year-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年に中国に上陸する熱帯低気圧はいくつありますか？
2026年に中国に上陸する熱帯低気圧はいくつありますか？
8個より多い 49%
8 48%
6 45%
7 43%
新規
新規
2027/06/30
5個未満
39%
5
43%
6
45%
7
43%
8
48%
8個より多い
49%
8個より多い 49%
8 48%
6 45%
7 43%
新規
新規
2027/06/30
5個未満
$0 Vol.
39%
5
$0 Vol.
43%
6
$0 Vol.
45%
7
$0 Vol.
43%
8
$0 Vol.
48%
8個より多い
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent above-average tropical cyclone formation in the western Pacific, driven by elevated sea surface temperatures linked to El Niño conditions, underpins the tight clustering of Polymarket implied probabilities around 6–8+ China landfalls for 2026. China's National Climate Center outlook anticipated 7–9 landfalls—above the climatological norm—with stronger-than-average intensity and multiple systems already striking southern and eastern provinces, including Bavi and Noul in July. Official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration and JTWC shows 14–15 named storms by early August, positioning the season for peak August–September activity when steering patterns and landfall windows remain highly variable. Model consensus highlights potential additional impacts from systems like Dolphin, though track uncertainty and possible recurvature could alter totals before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
マーケット開始日： Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent above-average tropical cyclone formation in the western Pacific, driven by elevated sea surface temperatures linked to El Niño conditions, underpins the tight clustering of Polymarket implied probabilities around 6–8+ China landfalls for 2026. China's National Climate Center outlook anticipated 7–9 landfalls—above the climatological norm—with stronger-than-average intensity and multiple systems already striking southern and eastern provinces, including Bavi and Noul in July. Official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration and JTWC shows 14–15 named storms by early August, positioning the season for peak August–September activity when steering patterns and landfall windows remain highly variable. Model consensus highlights potential additional impacts from systems like Dolphin, though track uncertainty and possible recurvature could alter totals before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
音量
$0終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETRecent above-average tropical cyclone formation in the western Pacific, driven by elevated sea surface temperatures linked to El Niño conditions, underpins the tight clustering of Polymarket implied probabilities around 6–8+ China landfalls for 2026. China's National Climate Center outlook anticipated 7–9 landfalls—above the climatological norm—with stronger-than-average intensity and multiple systems already striking southern and eastern provinces, including Bavi and Noul in July. Official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration and JTWC shows 14–15 named storms by early August, positioning the season for peak August–September activity when steering patterns and landfall windows remain highly variable. Model consensus highlights potential additional impacts from systems like Dolphin, though track uncertainty and possible recurvature could alter totals before year-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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