**A leadership transition has already occurred following the February 28, 2026, assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes.** The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March, activating constitutional interim mechanisms before the formal vote. Subsequent reports of Mojtaba’s reported incapacitation and limited public appearances have introduced uncertainty over effective control amid the ongoing conflict. Trader pricing on the timing market reflects this completed change plus low near-term odds of another shift, tempered by risks from wartime pressures, security concerns delaying processes, and questions around the new leader’s health and authority. Key variables include any further military or diplomatic developments, Assembly of Experts actions, and signals from Iran’s security establishment that could accelerate or stabilize the current arrangement before mid-2027 resolution windows.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$23,588,813 Vol.
2026/09/30
8月22日
<1%
8月31日
1%
9月30日
5%
10月31日
8%
11月30日
12%
12月31日
17%
2027年6月30日
26%
$23,588,813 Vol.
8月22日
$57,052 Vol.
<1%
8月31日
$1,171,484 Vol.
1%
9月30日
$464,067 Vol.
5%
10月31日
$13,961 Vol.
8%
11月30日
$11,497 Vol.
12%
12月31日
$4,024,911 Vol.
17%
2027年6月30日
$237,650 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**A leadership transition has already occurred following the February 28, 2026, assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes.** The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March, activating constitutional interim mechanisms before the formal vote. Subsequent reports of Mojtaba’s reported incapacitation and limited public appearances have introduced uncertainty over effective control amid the ongoing conflict. Trader pricing on the timing market reflects this completed change plus low near-term odds of another shift, tempered by risks from wartime pressures, security concerns delaying processes, and questions around the new leader’s health and authority. Key variables include any further military or diplomatic developments, Assembly of Experts actions, and signals from Iran’s security establishment that could accelerate or stabilize the current arrangement before mid-2027 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
音量
$23,588,813終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**A leadership transition has already occurred following the February 28, 2026, assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes.** The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March, activating constitutional interim mechanisms before the formal vote. Subsequent reports of Mojtaba’s reported incapacitation and limited public appearances have introduced uncertainty over effective control amid the ongoing conflict. Trader pricing on the timing market reflects this completed change plus low near-term odds of another shift, tempered by risks from wartime pressures, security concerns delaying processes, and questions around the new leader’s health and authority. Key variables include any further military or diplomatic developments, Assembly of Experts actions, and signals from Iran’s security establishment that could accelerate or stabilize the current arrangement before mid-2027 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$23,588,813終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**A leadership transition has already occurred following the February 28, 2026, assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes.** The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March, activating constitutional interim mechanisms before the formal vote. Subsequent reports of Mojtaba’s reported incapacitation and limited public appearances have introduced uncertainty over effective control amid the ongoing conflict. Trader pricing on the timing market reflects this completed change plus low near-term odds of another shift, tempered by risks from wartime pressures, security concerns delaying processes, and questions around the new leader’s health and authority. Key variables include any further military or diplomatic developments, Assembly of Experts actions, and signals from Iran’s security establishment that could accelerate or stabilize the current arrangement before mid-2027 resolution windows.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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