Diplomatic tensions between Israel and Turkey have intensified over Syria policy, Gaza, and regional influence, with Turkish officials issuing strong rhetorical warnings and Israeli leaders highlighting Ankara as an emerging security concern. However, both sides maintain deconfliction mechanisms, including a military hotline in Syria to prevent accidental clashes, while U.S. diplomatic messaging frames the exchanges as posturing rather than precursors to direct confrontation. Trade relations persist indirectly despite formal suspensions, and no verified military incidents have occurred in the past month. These factors underpin the trader consensus reflected in current market pricing, which treats sustained rivalry as more probable than outright armed engagement before the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$198,809 Vol.
$198,809 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$198,809 Vol.
$198,809 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic tensions between Israel and Turkey have intensified over Syria policy, Gaza, and regional influence, with Turkish officials issuing strong rhetorical warnings and Israeli leaders highlighting Ankara as an emerging security concern. However, both sides maintain deconfliction mechanisms, including a military hotline in Syria to prevent accidental clashes, while U.S. diplomatic messaging frames the exchanges as posturing rather than precursors to direct confrontation. Trade relations persist indirectly despite formal suspensions, and no verified military incidents have occurred in the past month. These factors underpin the trader consensus reflected in current market pricing, which treats sustained rivalry as more probable than outright armed engagement before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
音量
$198,809終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic tensions between Israel and Turkey have intensified over Syria policy, Gaza, and regional influence, with Turkish officials issuing strong rhetorical warnings and Israeli leaders highlighting Ankara as an emerging security concern. However, both sides maintain deconfliction mechanisms, including a military hotline in Syria to prevent accidental clashes, while U.S. diplomatic messaging frames the exchanges as posturing rather than precursors to direct confrontation. Trade relations persist indirectly despite formal suspensions, and no verified military incidents have occurred in the past month. These factors underpin the trader consensus reflected in current market pricing, which treats sustained rivalry as more probable than outright armed engagement before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$198,809終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic tensions between Israel and Turkey have intensified over Syria policy, Gaza, and regional influence, with Turkish officials issuing strong rhetorical warnings and Israeli leaders highlighting Ankara as an emerging security concern. However, both sides maintain deconfliction mechanisms, including a military hotline in Syria to prevent accidental clashes, while U.S. diplomatic messaging frames the exchanges as posturing rather than precursors to direct confrontation. Trade relations persist indirectly despite formal suspensions, and no verified military incidents have occurred in the past month. These factors underpin the trader consensus reflected in current market pricing, which treats sustained rivalry as more probable than outright armed engagement before the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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