Recent India Meteorological Department forecasts for Uttar Pradesh stations near Lucknow project a minimum temperature of 22–23°C on October 15, 2026, under clear skies and light winds that favor strong nocturnal radiative cooling after the monsoon withdrawal. This aligns with the market’s 93.5% implied probability for exactly 22°C, reflecting trader assessment of official guidance and historical October lows averaging near 19–22°C. Model consensus shows limited spread, though final IMD station readings could shift if unexpected cloud cover or localized moisture alters overnight cooling rates.